USA: The Finest Oligarchy Money Can Buy?

Posted on October 3, 2015 by davidsberry

Of the human characteristics, hunger and ambition have a bad rap, considering that we might all still be living in caves without them. However much we aspire to reduce their importance, it is the civilised comfort created by them that gives us the option to be so judgemental about their effect on human behaviour. Yet most areas of human endeavour continue to be driven by such motivation, at least in part.

However noble the posture of those involved, politics is actually no exception. While few of those involved in a democracy may confess it, the power they seek is ultimately bound up with success—and success brings money. There are very many unsuccessful politicians  to whom this does not apply, plus a few successful ones, like Ghandi. But most of those with national profile are not poor and have no intention of moving that way.

It would be unreasonable, possibly even insane to disconnect reward from success in politics. After all, most other jobs imply promotions, raises and financial incentives. But at what point does the money become tainted with real selfishness and greed? Though it has died down over the past few years, MP salaries and expenses have caused debate more than once. And a range of posts from consultancy to directorships fall to those who move beyond simple elected positions.

But fiscal reward for European politicians pales when compared to the USA. Proud of a commitment to freedom, equality and the right for each to achieve all they can, this has become the leitmotif of politics as much as of business. There may be poor US politicians but they are hard to find. Indeed, it has become such that riches are an essential ingredient of becoming a politician in the first place.

This applies to their Presidential campaigns more than any other. Consider the top five candidates for the election due next year. Their current polling status bears a strong resemblance to the funds they have available:

  1. Donald Trump ($4.5 bn) Richest candidate by a long shot is the GOP front-runner.
  2. Carly Fiorina ($58 m) Former HP CEO who has over 1,000 investments.
  3. Hillary Clinton ($45 m) The Clinton power couple trousered $28 m last year.
  4. Lincoln Chafee ($32 m) Inherited a fortune from Rhode Island royalty.
  5. Ben Carson ($26 m) Retired neurosurgeon who sat on boards for Costco and Kellogg.
  6. Jeb Bush ($22 m) Fortune has grown sixteenfold since being Governor of Florida.

Were it simply a matter of a high financial threshold preventing a broad cross-section of Americans having a credible chance at election to Congress, let alone the Presidency, this would betray egalitarian principles on which the country was founded. But election and office is only the beginning. Forbes reports:

“Several candidates have leveraged their political capital–contacts while in office, influence, power–into successful careers in the private sector (particularly private equity and consulting), or turned to media, raking in big bucks from book deals, radio shows, TV appearances, and even films. At the end of the day, being a successful politician is a lucrative business, as either Clinton can attest.”

Those who have achieved high office have uniformly prospered from that achievement. It makes little difference whether they were Democrat or Republican. Even more modest and self-effacing rarities like Jimmy Carter did well. This is the ‘league table’ of ex-presidents’ accumulated wealth over the last half-century:

  • Lyndon Johnston ($96 m) President 1963–1969
  • Bill Clinton ($55 m) President 1993–2001
  • George H. Bush ($23 m) President 1989–1993
  • George ‘Dubya’ Bush ($20 m) President 2001–2009
  • Richard Nixon ($13 m) President 1969–1974
  • Ronald Reagan ($10 m) President 1981–1989
  • Gerald Ford ($7 m) President 1974–1977
  • Jimmy Carter ($7 m) President 1977-1981

There is nothing wrong with prospering from rewards earned by representing people well. But, is it egalitarian or democratic if the threshold for high office is insurmountable for all but the very rich. Just where is the distinction between such a self-selecting oligarchy and the medieval kings the US Constitution so proudly claims to have renounced?

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Clearing Away the Past

Posted on September 29, 2015 by davidsberry

A prominent feature of the East Lothian shoreline and visible all round the Forth, Cockenzie Power Station spanned half a century. Once an embodiment of the proud coal tradition in the West of the county, it followed on immediately from Preston Links mine (closed 1964) to use coal from new local super-mines like Monktonhall.

While still a pupil at NBHS, I felt involved. Our science teacher, Mr Monaghan, was tasked with air quality monitoring to determine how well the 152m chimneys dispersed flue gases. His stuck his inlet pipe out the wall. For two weeks, me and equally evil buddies slipped back at night to burn sulphur beside it, throwing his readings off and his environmental sensibilities into a panic before we broke down and confessed.

Monktonhall never made it past the mid-1980s. Towards the end, Australian coal, shipped round the world and railed over from Hunterston, supplied it. Environmental awareness highlighted its embarassingly clod-hopping carbon footprint. Condemned as our dirtiest power station, it was put on notice of closure.

At first, Iberdrola (masquerading as Scottish Power) wanted it re-engineered to burn natural gas, dispatching arm-twisting minions to achieve this. ELC’s administration of the time (2009) wanted no part of it but the Scottish Government over-ruled them. Were the site still surrounded by heavy industry, extending its life could be rationalised. But meantime ‘The Trees’ in Port Seton, the Appin Drive in the Pans and others had changed the landscape beyond recognition. Local residents, already incensed at the old coal station smudging their washing, did not want 30 more years of the same.

Withdrawal of such future plans has brought long-overdue closure. George Kerevan (East Lothian’s new MP writing in The National) bemoans “erasing yet another landmark of Scottish Industrial Heritage”. But I disagree: Robert Matthew may have been “one of our foremost Scottish architects” but his sixties brutalist creation here sat as badly in our rural idyll as the unlamented Royal Mile Midlothian County Council building once did in Edinburgh’s Georgian World Heritage Site.

So, in a much-publicised operation, Cockenzie’s twin chimneys were demolished. With inch-perfect precision, they folded against each other, creating a plume of dust as high as they had once been that drifted over Cockenzie itself before dispersing within the hour. Several thousand people had gathered on various vantage points to witness the spectacle.

Over 100 people gather on Gullane Hill to witness the event

Over 100 people gather on Gullane Hill to witness the event

The twin chimneys fold together—taken from one of the dozens of boats offshore

The twin chimneys fold together—taken from one of the dozens of boats moored offshore

Now its site is available, Cockenzie gives East Lothian a unique strategic opportunity to grow our reputation for environment and tourism. It need not be the cruise/ferry port (see my earlier blog). But it must have vision, be environmentally friendly and bring much-needed quality jobs. And not create another eyesore like the one we just felled.

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Scottish Learning Festival 2015

Posted on September 23, 2015 by davidsberry

Taking over most of Glasgow’s SECC, this two-day event ticks all the right boxes for who’s involved. Its programme ranges far across the issues associated with school education in Scotland, covering topics that tawse-wielding disciplinarians of the mid-20th century—let alone the dominie despots of earlier eras—would be amazed at, if not flummoxed by. Leadership in Gaelic Medium Education? That’s covered. Using games-based learning to support the development of the early year’s workforce? That too.

Over 100 seminars, with as many as eight on at one time means the 3,000+ ‘practitioners’ attending are spoilt for choice. From all that, you might assume that such a gathering represents the leading edge in education in Scotland, if not further afield. And yet, nobody in the whole two days appears to have addressed that PISA scores are static or declining, or that business leaders still complain that schools (let alone universities) are turning out uneven cohorts of school-leavers, some verging on the illiterate but a greater number verging on the innumerate. How far is #SLF2015 addressing that?

Out of two days of presentations and 100+ seminars, only one mentions maths: Magic of Music – Early Stages Literacy, Maths and Numeracy and Health and Wellbeing. One mentions ‘engineering’; two ‘technology’; three (including the one above) ‘numeracy’ and three ‘science’. By contrast, five mention ‘disadvantage’, six ‘whole school’; 20 ‘progress’ and 28 ‘partnership’. ‘Attainment’ rates in 30% of all events.

But words highly relevant to education like ‘performance’, ‘failing’, ‘underachieve’, ‘exam’, ‘PISA’, ‘difficult’, ‘exclusion’, ‘disruptive’, ‘test’, ‘league table’, ‘private school’, ‘early leaver’ or even ‘school leaver’ get no mention at all. It appears the last time anyone mentioned ‘private schools’ with a view to learning from them was Dr Avis Glaze’s talk two years ago—and she is Canadian.

It would appear that we have developed a phalanx of professional educationalists above and beyond the chalk face: the Fife Council Pedagogy Team are tasked with “developing Fife Education and Learning Directorate’s vision to break the cycle of disadvantage in Fife’s communities”. Which rather gives the game away. Valid though concern is for an obvious link between social disadvantage and poor education, the second-biggest education authority in the country sees children’s education as a branch of social work.

The context in Scotland has been a series of Education Ministers—both Labour and SNP—that have pushed through a number of reforms like the McCrone settlement and Curriculum for Excellence but have otherwise steered clear of upsetting powerful teaching unions like the EIS. Say what you like about slash-and-burn Tories, but England has had no such qualms.

It is unlikely that Gove’s belligerent position and Academies would gain much traction in Scotland. But a recent minister was Liz Truss who knew something about education and was also not one to be cowed. Truss announced proposals to reform A-Levels by concentrating examinations at the end of two-year courses. She sought to improve standards in maths for fear that children are falling behind those in Asian countries and led a fact-finding visit to visit schools and teacher-training centres in Shanghai to see how children there have become the best in the world at maths.

There is little evidence of any such pivotal initiatives here at #SLF2015, let alone in Scotland. Although obviously anathema to both teachers and the present government, private schools also have much to teach the rest of education, despite their odious social overtones. Forget the resentment; they are getting something right. The Spectator had a recent article, attempting analyse what that might be.

In 2014, 79% of A-level entries at English private schools were graded A*, compared with an average for all schools of 8%. Exam results are never the whole story, but measuring civic performance is never an exact science. But, as the article explains:

“Many private school teachers have degrees from top universities; a large number, postgraduate degrees. They are thereby able to stretch the best of their pupils and engender an intellectual curiosity in others.

They also work in larger teams and can bounce ideas off each other. Smaller state schools may have a physics teacher also taking other subjects and no ‘collegiate’ context. Because private schools can gather larger cohorts of able pupils, lessons crack on at a pace that leaves some behind. State schools go more slowly because of the much wider range in ability of the pupils. As a result, the better pupils go unchallenged and don’t provide the same examples to others.

But the Tory party’s policy on schools has a huge hole. It wants state schools to learn from the private sector, and yet it denies them the freedom to select their pupils on merit, which leading private schools do unapologetically. In Scotland, the result of state schools also sticking to that has been middle-class parents engaging with their children and thus giving them a de facto advantage over children whose parents are less engaged/ambitious for them.

The way out of such impasse is to allow streaming, if not selection, in state schools. This MUST involve a parallel path for crafts- or sports-oriented and artistic pupils who are no longer stigmatised by one-size-fits-all insistence that ritual exam-passing constitutes a proper education so we stop wasting a gamut of skills for which exams are no measure. It’s the only way to avoid losing leavers into a NEET wilderness after school.

Had #SLF2015 provided some elements that sought to explore, if not address such radical options, it might not pass unreported by the media—and grow beyond a familiar support social for educationalists—by thinking radical for once. Otherwise, the media will see SLF as a talking shop and mostly ignore education as not much more than a playscheme for rug rats and teenagers, enlivened occasionally by a spat over exam results.

And our PISA scores will continue to flatline against countries like Finland and Singapore. Such countries see educating their young well as an economic necessity and who are not averse to cracking a few eggs (not to mention heads) to make a decent omelette.

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Blame the Wrinklies

Posted on September 21, 2015 by davidsberry

Before we wade into this blog, disclosure is required: 1) I am a wrinkly, being two years past retirement age and so admit a personal interest in their welfare and; 2) this blog is full of charts and figures. Numerically queasy readers may wish to skip elsewhere.

Since the whole wunch of bankers who should have known better got it horribly wrong on ‘financial derivatives’, it has been pretty much seven years of famine for rest of us, even as the wunch themselves retain eye-watering bonuses. But the real story is not just ‘us-and-them’, as the media and politicos would have us believe. The problem is actually your Nan. To explain, we examine historical UK government expenditure.

Once the declining 1960’s, disastrous 1970’s and strife-torn 1980’s were over, this last quarter century has seen increased affluence, even allowing for the fiscal crisis of 2007/8. Over that period, UK government expenditure grew by from £200bn to £760bn or some 280% at a time when inflation only totalled 120%. This means some £320bn more (in real terms) is now being spent each year, compared to 25 years ago.

So…err…what did we get for that extra money?

The answer is: not much. Let’s break the expenditure down and focus on six major categories to see where the increase(s) went to:

UKexpXport UKexpDefence

So, while there was a tripling of transport spend under Labour the 5-year decline under the Tories was halted this year with their commitment to spend £10bn on Roads England, broadband, HS2 and Crossrail 2. But, despite it quadrupling, it remains the smallest of the six major pots.

Despite what Tories might say about being strong on defence and security, the doubling in defence spending happened under Labour and has stalled since. Allowing for inflation, this means a decrease in real spend, mostly under the last government. But what about more human budget areas?

UKexpWelfare

UKexpEducn

Surprisingly, welfare spend increased under the Tories, stalled in the first few years of Labour and then stalled again under the Tories after almost doubling in a decade. Taken over the piece, there has been a real increase—but all of it was in the 1990’s and since 2010 it has stalled, i.e. declined in real terms.

Education, about which everyone makes a song and dance, grew steadily under both parties, outstripping inflation by over 50%—until it hit a brick wall under the Tories since 2010 when it also declined in real terms.

So Welfare and Education also don’t explain why budget outlays are continuing to rise. Yet in the last five years, expenditure has risen by £90bn (~13%). One factor is that interest paid on ballooning debt has risen £20bn. But the real rises have been in two areas that now account for one in every three pounds spent.

UKexpHealth UKexpPensionAfter quintupling in the first two decades, the NHS now needs one in every six budget pounds. That funds more expensive equipment, higher paid doctors and flurries of prescriptions. But the biggest single element—some £24bn—comes from older people, who are living longer and making increased demands on medical services as a result.

Health’s £138bn is topped only by the £154bn in pensions. And this is increasing even faster than Health. As can be seen from the last two charts, both trends are linear and show no sign of wavering. This is because:

  1. Our population over 65 is growing living longer and claiming state pension for longer
  2. Public sector pensions now benefit from wages comparable to the private sector
  3. Pay-as-you-go public pension funding means that today’s taxpayers fund pensions directly; actuarial reviews are jacking up the liability and thus the payment required

So, with demands on both Health and Pensions driven by the elderly and nobody at Westminster minded to upset this electorate who vote habitually, it appears we are between a wrinkly rock and a fiscal hard place. Squeezing the ‘normal’ budget areas has not reined in expenditure and is now starving key areas like education so these two areas must be addressed. Soon.

Net Real Change in UK Government Expenditure 1990-2015

Percentage Change in UK Government Expenditure in Real Terms 1990-2015

Neither economist, nor rocket scientist is required to work out this is leading to disaster. That the UK has an ageing population is no surprise, nor is the corollary that they require more support as they age. While ministers may choose to build roads, schools or aircraft carriers, no progressive government can (or should) curtail basic rights of the elderly.

But both politicians and media are blanking this unavoidable truth. Unless something radical is done to encourage the elderly to keep their skills and experience engaged later in life, our ideal of a welfare state and health free at the point of need will collapse under the sheer weight of demand.

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Pole Danzig

Posted on September 18, 2015 by davidsberry

Since joining the Union and building the British Empire, Scots have rather forgotten the close ties they once enjoyed with Europe. The ‘Auld Alliance’ with France (forgotten by most French) was the least of it. From the Middle Ages onward, Scots exploited trade, craft and other opportunities unavailable at home all around the North and Baltic Seas.

It took Scots most of the 14th century to recover from Edward I’s depredations and ridding the country of his baleful influence. In that time, pivotal castles like Dirleton were rebuilt and new ones like Tantallon added. The English being otherwise engaged extending their Angevin Empire (known to them as ‘The Hundred Years War’) the Scots were left to develop. The English became further occupied with a dynastic civil war they call ‘The War of the Roses’, leaving Scots to exploit what benefits relative peace could bring.

Initially, the main continental trading partners of Scottish burghs were German merchants in Flanders. Before 1321 Scottish merchants had established a staple in Bruges (through which all wools, hides, etc were channeled). Although Bruges remained the major trading partner, from the 1460s trade also developed with Middelburg, Veere and Antwerp. Trade with Danzig, Stralsund, and Hamburg also developed so that by the 1380s an annual average of 7,360 sacks of wool and 36,100 leather hides were exported, in exchange for grain and luxury goods like fine cloth, wine, pottery, armour and military equipment.

Medieval Carta Marina by Olaus Magnus, showing Scotland's major trading partners.

Medieval Carta Marina by Olaus Magnus, showing Scotland’s major trading partners.

The major beneficiaries were Berwick and Leith, with smaller East Coast ports from Dunbar to Aberdeen joining in. Because of Haddington’s prominence, Aberlady (now silted up) played a prominent role barely remembered today. To supervise the trade and exploit opportunities, many Scots moved abroad. In 1508 James IV moved the Staple to Veere where, even today, their museum is housed in De Schotse Huizen.

But the larger international exploits of Scots were in the Baltic. Bulk grain was available through Baltic ports and Scots became established on the Pomeranian coast, especially in Poland through its main connection with the west—Danzig (Gdansk). In 1474 twenty-four vessels are recorded as arriving there from Scotland.

Since the late 14th century, the Baltic region enjoyed strong trade links. Many of the timbers used in the building of Queen Mary’s House in St Andrews were shipped from Danzig 600 years ago. Religious tolerance, an escape from poverty and famine, and the promise of adventure and riches prompted many Scots to seek a future there—so many that it boasts two suburbs named Nowe and Stare Szkoty (New and Old Scots).

Detail of the Pomeranian Coast, showing dense scatter of trade links & prominence of Danzig

Detail of the Southern Baltic, showing peppering of Scots trade links & prominence of Danzig

Many arrived as traders, going on to contribute much to Scottish culture. Robert Gordon made a fortune through the Aberdeen-Danzig trade route, and donated some £10,000 to the foundation of a hospital in his hometown. Four hundred years later the building is better known as Robert Gordon University. William Forbes, known as ‘Danzig Willie‘, built the spectacular Craigievar Castle on the back of his trading profits. Sir Robert Skene’s investments helped Aberdeen develop the largest granite quarry on earth.

Poland boasts several villages named Nowa Szkocja (New Scotland), Dzkocja, Skotna Góra, Szotniki or Szoty. Scottish surnames are surprisingly common—MacLeod as Machlejd; Ramsay as Ramzy; Polish phone books are full of them. The religious tolerance of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth made Poland an attractive place for Scots for persecuted Scots to establish themselves. There were also 50,000 Scots raised to fight in the Thirty Years War, largely under Gustavus Adolphus. Came the peace, many settled.

In the 17th century, Poland was described as ‘Scotland’s America’; there were at least 30,000 Scots living in Poland. Krakow was one of the main cities in which they settled, and in 1576, the Scottish community in Krakow was so large Poland’s King Stefan Batory assigned a district for them to settle in. Some managed to rise through the ranks to notable positions, such as suppliers to the royal court. Alexander Chalmers (Czamer) became Mayor of Warsaw four times between 1691 and 1702 and has a plaque at his former home in Warsaw’s Old Town.

So, our welcoming Polish Army units in WW2 and the recent EU influx of workers from Poland and Lithuania should be seen in context, as a re-establishment of international links with nearby old friends from which three centuries of empire-building in distant climes diverted us and almost made us forget.

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Borderline

Posted on September 17, 2015 by davidsberry

It being a particularly bright and clear late summer day and it also being ten days into the media hype surrounding the launch of the Borders Railway (teething troubles ought to be ironed out?) the time seemed propitious to hop a train to Gala—my mother’s birthplace—for the first time since she paid children’s fare for me to visit my great aunt.

Unlike other lines that have been opened, this one has been presented with some fanfare—and rightly so. Heritor to the legendary Waverley Line that ran all the way to Carlisle, closed against fierce opposition in 1969, this is both the longest and the most significant new Scottish railway built in over a century. Plus it has tourism potential that Alloa, Bathgate, etc never had.

The 30-mile route had appreciable teething troubles. From a stillborn campaign 45 years ago to re-open the ‘Border Union Railway’ the fight had finally got traction in the early days of the Scottish Parliament. After a decade of faffing and cost inflation it got serious in 2011 and was delivered this month for £350m—five times the original estimate. So what did we get for our £7,000 per yard?

Borders Railway Route and Stations

Borders Railway Route and Stations

The train itself made a disappointing introduction: a frumpy two-car Class 158 Sprinter that was long in the tooth unrefurbished and inappropriate. Not just showing age.it was too small for the many passengers and poorly accessible for themany older passengers with mobility problems, making boarding at busy stations slow and therefore keeping time difficult. Some 80% of the trains are this size and type, with only rush-hour trains being doubled up to avoid serious overcrowding. The ScotRail Alliance managing the line said:

“Disruption had been caused by factors including a train breaking down, signal problems, high passenger numbers and disruptive travellers. It has been particularly busy on board some services. At times this has caused delays while these unusually large numbers of customers board and alight.”

It’s never a good sign when rentaquotes refer to bealing customers who rightly feel let down as “disruptive travellers” and the partial measures of stealing rolling stock from other lines and maintenance depots to lengthen a few trains speaks of a lack of foresight and planning. On the trip I took on Sep 16th (13:25 ex-Waverley; 15:28 ex-Tweedbank) seven of eight ScotRail trains seen on the line were such two-car Class 158s.

The trip itself takes about an hour and passes some very pleasant scenery, criss-crossing the Gala Water many times and overtaking cars  plodding down the ever-twisting A7. Each of the seven new stations look brisk and new and the practical-but-decorative ‘scree slopes’ of stones to inhibit landslips interweaves with trees, hills and bucolic water meadows.

Stow Station between Gorebridge and Galasheils

Stow Station between Gorebridge and Galasheils, Looking South

But it is arrival at the purpose of the whole venture that underwhelms. Galasheils—the only border town served—has a single-platform station squeezed onto its site with difficult access and no parking. The line falls three miles short of reaching a major tourist destination at Melrose, despite Network Rail saying there is no impediment to it doing so.

The biggest disappointment has to be the bleak and minimalist Tweedbank terminus. It’s only feature is a two-track island platform 300m-long to accommodate tourist charter trains of up to 12 carriages in length. As if to prove the point, a steam train excursion pulled by the A4 Gresley Union of South Africa was there and the platform thick with Scottish Railway Preservation Society anoraks.

Tweedbank Terminus; Class 58 on Left, Steam Excursion on Right

Tweedbank Terminus; Class 158 on Left, 60009 with Steam Excursion on Right

As can be seen from the picture, the place is bereft of facilities. Apart from a large (and already full) park-and-ride, the only structure is the Eildon View building (on the right above) a facility exclusively for ScotRail staff. Otherwise, it is a blastrd heath with:

  • A standard two-panel A1 notice board showing no local information
  • No toilets
  • No cafe, kiosk or even a drinks machine
  • No tourist information whatsoever, even in English
  • No indication of onward bus connections or where to catch them—First’s 9, X62, 65 and 68 services (all to Melrose) pass nearby
  • No signs visible for walking to nearby Melrose, Eildon Hills, Dryburgh, Scott’s View…

What car-less foreign visitors, lured by the hype to see the famous Borders would make of it can only be guessed at; even access to a nearby pleasant, beech-lined rural road was still blocked by Herris fencing. The good local bakery nearby is not even hinted at.

Within 100m of Tweedbank Station but Inaccessible

Within 100m of Tweedbank Station—but Made Inaccessible

It is abundantly clear that whichever set of jobsworth pencilnecks conceived this line were driven by politics to tick civic boxes yet cheesepare to meet budget. As a result, all stations are mobility-friendly and every farm track near the line has copious crash barriers to stop vehicles swerving on to it. But while there are no level-crossings anywhere, new bridges are built single-track only, whereas many road bridges over (e.g. A720 Edinburgh bypass) are wider than the present road to permit expansion, betraying road-over-rail priority.

And that highlights the line’s greatest flaw: total lack of future-proofing. There are only three stretches of double track, 80% of which is in countryside south of Gorebridge. From Portobello East junction to Gorebridge (the whole Midlothian stretch) is single track with single platforms (except Shawfair to A720). No new overbridges can take double track. Worse: even old bridges and tunnels wide enough for doubling (as the whole Waverley Line once was) have single track laid in the middle—as if to allow for electrification, though none is planned.

But the set of jobsworth pencilnecks who conceived this line are nothing against the set of jobsworth pencilnecks who are running it. Fine and widespread though the marketing may be, there is no management substance behind ScotRail’s ‘Borders Railway’ front. Because of overcrowding, trains are delayed; because of delays other trains are held up waiting to access single-track sections; because of compound delays trains fall out causing overcrowding…

The total lack of operational maneuver trying to run a half-hourly quart service down this pint-pot line is compounded by the absence of any siding into which broken down trains can be shunted. This is a scheduler’s nightmare—and we ‘re not in winter yet. Delay is compounded by steam trains running three days a week, forcing the equivalent ScotRail train to be cancelled. This is hinted at in ScotRail’s timetable—except the trains that fall out are not those shown in the timetable.

And when they do get cancelled, no passenger is any the wiser. Many announcements are made about keeping your luggage with you or sternly warning you that standard tickets are not valid on the steam train (that just replaced the ScotRail one you were trying to catch). But never an apology or explanation of an hour wait for the next two-car 158, inevitably overcrowded and crewed by people who neither know nor care about missing trains. Bad PR, but execrable management.

So, after 15 years and £350m of your dosh, Borders have a curate’s egg of a line. It is an undoubted asset and a long-overdue boon to the Borders. But forty years ago Newbridge roundabout at the M8/M9/A8 junction proved an expensive, underengineered failure that had to be rebuilt at great expense twenty years later to be fit for purpose. The  question begged is not how to extend this line to Carlisle but cost to rebuild what we have up to a standard that would make any such extension workable.

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Calling All Pedants

Posted on September 15, 2015 by davidsberry

John Cleese has been able to make me laugh in a huge variety of circumstances ever since my uni studies were regularly interrupted to join a flatful of mates to fall about to Monty Python. Ever wry, if not acid, he has since commented on 2015’s ongoing security crisis by dipping his pen into his customary fluent vitriol and lampooning the bureaucrat’s cheerless ideas of how to deal with it. However, in contrast to his normally flawless flow, in this case, he has made a (not?) deliberate mistake; see if you can spot it.

“The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Syria and have therefore raised their security level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.” The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorised from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

“The Scots have raised their threat level from “Pissed Off” to “Let’s get the Bastards.” They don’t have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

“The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France ‘s white flag factory, effectively paralysing the country’s military capability.”

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Twa Corbyns

Posted on September 13, 2015 by davidsberry

It’s a humble man who makes a speech using the word ‘thank’ 27 times. Such is not the mark of a man of overweening ambition, nor one who aspires to high office. Yet that speech was made as the landslide victor of the Labour leadership contest, Jeremy Corbyn. “J.C. (of non-biblical)“, as some have long called him, took Westminster’s political pundits by surprise and the Labour party by storm. And, though the man himself has been a model of unshakable conviction throughout his 32-year career representing Islington North, the next year or so will be marked by incompatibly schizophrenic views about him.

To adherents of ‘Old Labour’ on the one hand—especially those in Scotland—it had been a desperate two decades. Dominant throughout the eighties as the standard-bearers against Thatcher, Scottish Labour boasted fifty MPs, every council of note and a stranglehold on civic and quango appointments. They were embedded in the social fabric of clubs and miners’ welfares across the country, the unswerving representatives of ‘the working man’ and who, in turn, received their unswerving vote. “Ah’ve aye votit Labour” was a doorstep response from Mauchline to Mastrick.

Two decades ago, this monolith was faced with a dilemma; dig in with what they knew or adopt what Blair was doing to achieve power again. With few exceptions, they hung tough, were ever-vigilant on party loyalty and accommodated the Blair years and their victories by staying out of sight and “ca’in a well worn haun’le.” In this, they were joined by Jeremy Corbyn building his maverick reputation by being full-bore Foot’s socialism and dealing with untouchables like Jerry Adams long before any NI peace deal seemed plausible.

This put those here who embraced Blair—Brown, Cook, Darling, Alexander, etc—at odds with their CLPs. But the idea that New Labour had moved so far from its own roots spread like crabgrass. Corbyn would have had a great night out with Keir Hardy; he would have provided the missing seconder to his 1894 counter-motion rejecting the house’s congratulations at the birth of Edward (later VIII) Saxe-Coburg-Gotha and substituting condolences to the families of 280 dead in that year’s Albion Colliery disaster.

For much of Labour Corbyn represents a return to values they understand, for which they have spent years in the party fighting. That the result was so conclusive in all three categories of voters—members, supporters and affiliates—underscores both how deep socialist principles still run within Labour and how rudderless New Labour has become without the evangelical leadership of someone like Blair.

Labour Leadership Results

Labour Leadership Results

With this broad level of support Corbyn cannot be simply dismissed as some old marginal leftie. Consider several of his policies:

  • Scrap Trident and not replace it
  • National Education Service, modeled on the NHS
  • Cease military action in Syria & Iraq
  • Re-introduce rent controls, linking private rents to local earnings
  • Take in refugees desperate to get somewhere safe to live
  • Recreate a regulated, publicly run service delivering energy

Not all will agree with these or his more radical, positions. But a significant number outside Labour embrace many of those, none achievable under the Tories. He may not be the Messiah, but he represents people who have long felt no major UK party reflected their social conscience; in Scotland, they defected to the SNP in droves. Some see him, rather than Kezia, as the antidote and therefore the salvation of Scottish Labour from oblivion. He presents hope for revival here that none of the other three Blair-lite candidates could.

Then there is the other Corbyn, the one the Tories and a great swathe of the media see: Michael Foot without the donkey jacket; irresponsible disarmer; tax-and-spend fanatic; Joshua to Canary Wharf’s Jericho; veggie-munching cycling nut; Lenin with hair…they go on. And so The Torygraph trumpets: “Death of New Labour as Jeremy Corbyn’s socialist party begins a period of civil war” or the Daily Mail thunders: “Corbyn called Colombian terror group ‘comrades’: Labour leader faces fresh fury over militant beliefs” or UK Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, bleats: “Jeremy Corbyn presents a big “risk” to Britain’s national and economic security.”

Once this sort of ritual bad-mouthing gets into its stride, it will make the ritual abuse that the Yes campaign had to endure last year seem as harmless as an episode of SpongeBob SquarePants. It is not just the Tories who will have a go. After two decades of New Labour, there are many in the party who believe in its evolution to this point and are loath to take regressive, if comforting, steps into the past. The resignation of seven front bench members (including all three opponents) signals a strong internal resistance. To call it a split is premature but certainly there have been tensions among factions for some time. Yet, every party is a broad church; Derry Irvine and Dennis Skinner were never even on speaking terms, but most (except, apparently, Scotland’s far left) rub along for the sake of effectiveness through cohesion.

But the key point of attack will be electability. Many comparisons have already been made between Corbyn’s stance and the 1983 Labour manifesto—in Kaufman‘s pithy put-down “The longest suicide note in political history”. Significant numbers within Labour longed for a return to historic ‘Labour values’ from spin-heavy fare peddled by the Shadow Cabinet up to now. But how does that chime with the great apolitical public?

Certainly politics is tainted; principle and backbone are seen as rarities. But old-style socialism proved unelectable in the 1980’s and was ditched as such in the 1990’s with considerable success. The English public since m0ved considerably to the right. The Scots less so but SNP success came from embracing a more centrist position than before. And, despite legendary resolve and principle, they made little headway until voters perceived personal advantage over any risk in voting for them. Corbyn deserves plaudits for being one of the few to keep the red flag flying But will such principle cut any ice with a more fickle, self-interested electorate in the teeth of Tory scaremongering, resentful Blairites and a media fixated on bogey-men?

But nane sall ken whaur he is gane;
O’er his white banes, whan they are bare,
The wind sall blaw fir evermair.

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Changing the Old Guard

Posted on August 30, 2015 by davidsberry

It’s a tough old world in politics. When you’re in political limbo, nobody cares much what you do. However, the scope for character, opinions and even eccentricity is large. On the other hand, when you run a one-party state you can afford a few loose cannons because they make you look more human: think how Sir Nicky Fairbairn was once as much a scourge of the Tories as Dennis ‘Beast of Bolsover’ Skinner has been to New Labour. The trouble comes when you are neither off the radar, nor complacently secure. This is the state in which the SNP currently finds itself. And it shows.

Since the SNP got their act together for the 2007 elections, the party has gone from strength to strength and has managed to put a long overdue wind up the unionists and the little-Englanders who dominate Westminster (not all of them Tories). Consolidation of their grip on the Scottish Parliament in 2011 and a right trouncing of all other parties this year has put real power in the SNP’s hands, especially as they managed to turn a supposed defeat in September’s referendum into a recruiting bonanza, giving them stature in the eyes of the Scottish public that a complacent Labour had long abdicated.

This success has been attributed (rightly) to excellent party discipline through loyalty to a common purpose and willingness to suppress personal ambition ‘for the cause.’ Compared to recent Labour shenanigans in Scotland or Tory 1922 Committee posturings in Westminster, the SNP has been a model of united purpose. There have been no defections and the few resignations have been on demonstrable principle—as when MSPs John Finnie and Jean Urquhart resigned over policy realignment on  NATO.

That honeymoon appears to be ending. Apart from the swollen ranks of over 100 parliamentarians when there weren’t even three dozen a decade ago, the strain of eight years of unrelenting centralisation of local government tries the loyalty of 400+ SNP councillors. However much the fiscal squeeze can be blamed on London, councils are in the front line of cuts they have little latitude to ameliorate.

Eight years of the ‘parity of esteem’ in John Swinney’s Concordat have been a sham; councillors have been treated as inferiors and ignored. Yet they have demonstrated the same unswerving loyalty as virtually every parliamentarian and their growing army of assistants, researchers and SPADs. Why is this?

Partly it’s because disloyalty can cost your job; no-one is indispensible—unless they can achieve the kind of profile Margo did. There are now over 1,000 people who derive an income from politics due to their membership of (and loyalty to) the SNP. Few risk rocking their lucrative boat. But that is only part of the story. Examine the front ranks of SNP MSPs and MPs and there is a wealth of experience and a dedication forged in the dark days prior to 1999 when very few were elected and the party was run by a colourful array of long-time volunteer members who knew each other well.

Examine the pre-2011 ranks and almost all had served time motivating local branches, canvassing the streets and swallowing defeat until they were inured to it: party position was won by hard graft and gritty determination. Then came the 2007 and 2011 breakthroughs when a large number found themselves elected into positions of power. Organising and co-ordinating that explosion of numbers was made possible because most were loyal veterans of that long march to power.

Then came the referendum ‘defeat’. Suddenly, party ranks swelled eight-fold. The watershed also catalysed like-minded organisations outside the party, such as the popular “Women for Independence”. Unlike the many passive members of previous generations, many of these new members wanted to be involved and showed up at meetings and conferences, seeking to participate.

As the May General Election demonstrated, the days of defeat were past; getting nominated as an SNP candidate was no longer a hiding to nothing. And, because a good number of the Old Guard were already MSPs or councillors or disinterested in becoming either, a phalanx of new blood swept in to swell the group to 56 SNP MPs.

With nearly a year’s participation under their belt, the new, already politicised generation of members realised the world had changed, that glory, fame and fortune was available for those nominated. So, whereas the jostling for nominations had formerly been largely for List position, this summer was open season on the constituencies. It is only now becoming apparent that the process is in turmoil.

Those with national profile are unaffected; nobody is going to challenge Cabinet secretaries because that would be too blatantly disloyal. Otherwise, it is open season. With tangible prizes now at stake, several contests have turned bitter:

  • North East List MSP Christian Allard (he succeeded Mark MacDonald who won the Aberdeen Donside by-election in 2013) is challenging junior Health Minister (and long-time activist) Maureen Watt for Aberdeen South.
  • Veteran and South of Scotland list MSP Chic Brodie has been unexpectedly pipped for the nomination in Ayr (which he has worked diligently) by Glasgow councillor Jennifer Dunn. Jennifer cast the net wide, including East Lothian and Carrick before being se;ected for Ayr. She may prove a strong candidate but it may be significant that all her endorsements are from the new generation elected since 2011.
  • Colin Keir, elected in 2011 for Edinburgh Western, lost the 2016 nomination to Toni Giugliano who had been a Yes campaign official and is  a protegé of Alex Salmond.
  • Veteran and Angus & Mearns MSP Nigel Don who has been a diligent and articulate voice for the area (unless you swallow the calculated sour grapes of his Lib-Dem opponents) has similarly been ousted by a councillor-since-2011, Mairi Evans. He had put up a stiff opposition to court closures until part whips frog-marched him into voting for the legislation.
  • Fur has been flying in North Lanarkshire where Richard Lyle (a stalwart since the seventies) has come under serious fire for supporting the Mossend freight terminal extension and his candidacy for Uddingston and Bellshill appears to be in the balance.
  • In Paisley, Andy Doig, a regular activist and councillor who had been selected to fight the Renfrewshire South seat, is under fire from claims that he jumpd the gun and had used party information to campaign for his selection.
  • Rumours abound that European minister Humza Yousaf may be challenged in his Glasgow Pollok seat and there are currently no fewer than nine jostling for the Glasgow Provan nomination so the story is not yet at an end.

It would be foolish of any party not to bring on fresh talent (a lesson Kezia has supposedly now learned). But, though there is no evidence for anything underhand in the democratic process, is it not curious that all rammies so far have involved unseating a long-term activist? This appears to signify a sea change where, besides fealty to the whips’ command, those elected will also need to start diligently courting their local members.

It remains to be seen whether this ‘new blood’ infuses character or, like the SPADs some of them are, they remain Pavlovian in their loyalty. Certainly the refreshing surge of political interest over the last year bodes well and, to avoid universal frustration of the Covenant in the 1950s, getting elected is the only way to change things. Once there, it is always possible to ‘go native’ in what you believe, as Margo did.

Women for Independence is one of the more impressive products of this year and several SNP candidates are from that vibrant organisation. Candidates replacing Kenny MacAskill and Margaret Burgess (both stepping down) are WFI, as is the Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch candidate. Nothing against WFI but, if elected, they may well run into the same wall that Salmond did 30 years ago when his membership of the 79 Group caused ructions.

Any transition is difficult but the larger any organisation and the more in the public eye, the more painful the process. It remains to be seen whether these spats clouding the SNP selection process (and there may be more to come) cause party prospects any damage or are just transient symptoms of the party having grown so fast.

But one thing is clear: the come-rule-with-me cabal of Sturgeon, Murrell, Robison and Hosie—effectively the politburo of the party since Salmond stepped aside—are Old Guard and need to either broaden their church to recognise these developments…or get themselves an industrial-grade crystal ball to keep their swollen party on track for success. Because the instinctive loyalty of those who brought the SNP through its dark days is being undermined, if not usurped, by a Young Guard whose ambition is personal and who no longer share their folk memory.

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Put Power Where People Live

Posted on August 26, 2015 by davidsberry

Starting with its inception, the Scottish Parliament has played double standards, especially since the SNP came to power. Whereas the first eight years marked time with an unambitious Labour-led Scottish Executive sitting on their well paid behinds, the SNP have at least taken the jalopy out on the road to see what it could do.

But there is one glaring exception covering a third of their entire budget that stilll has cobwebs all over it. Starting well with John Swinney’s great-sounding Concordat with its ‘Parity of Esteem’, local government has been run into the long grass as an issue and democracy in Scotland suffers as a result. Our present Scottish Government shows double standards: it scoffs at what Westminster regards generous devolution of powers under Smith, yet it has increased their stranglehold over councils.

It dates from the ill-considered Tory reforms of 1976 that abolished burghs and any real local responsibility, creating eight behemoths of regional councils. By Tory lights, these went badly awry, largely falling under Labour control. So they had another go in 1996, gerrymandering them small enough for Tories to have a chance to control at least some of them (the real reason why Glasgow was stripped of its less-Labour leafy suburbs).

While Tories were content that even Parish Councils in England had fiscal powers, their more colonial approach in Scotland emasculated those very burghs with which most people identified as ‘their’ community. The way the Scottish Local Government Boundary Commission has operated since in drawing wards, fixating on voter numbers and shibboleths like deprivation while driving a coach and horses through preservation of such community identity has only made things worse.

So after forty years of flawed one-size-fits-all diktat from both Westminster and Holyrood,  Reform Scotland has done what CoSLA failed to do: make a case for local government to be just that and not just a supine instrument of central government policy. Whether on PPI or Council Tax freeze councils have had their arms up their backs the whole time. Reform Scotland’s briefing argues:

  • Local authorities in Scotland are not fully in control of any of their own tax income.
  • Local autonomy is undermined when councillors have no real control over taxation.
  • By at least devolving council tax and non-domestic rates in full, councils would have greater room for manoeuvre to take local priorities/circumstances into account.

So, not devolution in full, nor any attempt to address the currently skewed scale of what constitutes local democracy, but at least the same argument of being responsible fully for what they spend that the present Scottish Government argues should apply to Holyrood.

Consider what happens now and the case is overwhelming. Say a council wants to provide early years support in its education and that would cost the equivalent of a 1% rise in its total budget. If this is not government policy there is little chance that their component of funding would increase to cover that. But since 80% of funding comes from them and only 20% from council tax, it would take a 5% rise in council tax to fund the initiative. Ergo, nobody sticks their head above the parapet.

Meantime government policy continues to be doled out in terms of specific grants, such as the Safer Streets initiative. The result is that, while potholes go unfilled and road markings are left to fade, safety signs, traffic calming and traffic studies keep rolling to ensure that year’s grant is fully spent as they are legally unavailable for anything else.

Devolution was never supposed to stop at Holyrood. As well as council tax, business rates are collected by local authorities. But they are set and controlled by Holyrood. This means that not only the rate, but to whom it applies and discount schemes are controlled centrally and cannot reflect local requirements adequately. Even though the level of grants to local authorities ring-fenced for specific purposes was cut significantly under the 2007 Concordat, neither of Swinney’s successors in charge of local government has since moved an inch to reinforce its supposed ‘parity of equals’.

The respected Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy’s (CIPFA) 2014 submission to the Scottish Parliament’s Local Government and Regeneration Committee highlighted the problem of a lack of local control over, and accountability for, local taxation:

“We recommend: That as part of a revised system of funding, there should also be a review of the proportion of resources which can be raised locally; as part of this:
• Responsibility for, and control of local taxation should sit clearly at the local level; and
• The level of resources raised from local taxation should promote accountability to local citizens for local choices and incentivise growth of the local economy, attract investment and deliver positive outcomes for the local area.”

It appears a no-brainer to those outside the bubble of political self-interest that this is both in the spirit of devolution that created the Scottish Parliament in the first place and that this would go far in reasserting the lively link that once existed between voters and those responsible for most of the services on which they depend in their daily lives—schools, roads, planning, recreation, culture, social support, cleansing, etc, etc.

Reform Scotland’s proposals deserve serious consideration and require implementation if the slide in voter interest is to be halted and—equally important the unsung work of local volunteers in building nd sustaining their communities is not to be undermined. Those proposals should be seized as an opportunity and implemented in full, viz:

  • Devolve Council Tax in full; this means complete control over local tax, including rates and bands. This would even allow individual councils to retain, reform or replace Council Tax with another form of local taxation.
  • Devolve Business Rates in full. Councils would then have an incentive to provide an attractive economic environment, but the decision how best to achieve that would be up to them. Given big-is-beautiful myopia displayed by both Scottish Enterprise and VisitScotland in recent years, an antidote to their baleful influence is needed.
  • Once further powers are devolved from Westminster, there is a strong case for devolving further taxes, and perhaps welfare powers, to councils.
  • Give Councils the ability to innovate. Whether on a bed tax or parking charges, let local councillors try new ideas and face the voters with results achieved.
  • Publish local authority information within GERS: future editions of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland should separate Scottish Government income/expenditure from those of councils to allow figures to be compared.

So the ball is in the SNP government’s court. But will the affable, capable but largely unknown Marco Biagi have the clout/support to make a move? Given party discipline displayed to date and the SNP’s aversion to unnecessary controversy, the runes do not look good. But they are savvy politicos who know that discretion breeds over-caution which breeds inertia which breeds ossification which leads to the political wilderness.

Just look at Scottish Labour as an object lesson.

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