A week may be a long time in politics, but 48 hours can seem almost as long. It may be churlish to blame Humza Yousaf for taking a claw hammer to what had seemed to be his imperturbable administration. But, decent and sincere as he may be, this car crash was in the offing for months from the way he was driving.
First Ministers can stamp their authority on an administration, as both Salmon and Sturgeon did. Or they can run a collegiate shop along the collective lines of the Politburo, as Jack McConnel did. Unfortunately, Humza did neither.
While Alex Salmond had been gallus enough to thole some character in his cabinet, Nicola Sturgeon did not. Fixated with control, she did the opposite to the Ronald Reagan approach—pick good people who know their staff and stay a figurehead out of their way. Instead, she picked loyalty and political correctness.
Humza was one of those. His steadfast toeing of party lines ensured he survived during any reshuffle. Though he took over the Health brief from Jeane Freeman mid-Covid, his 20 months in the post were undistinguished, with Sturgeon grabbing every media opportunity this offered.
His own opportunity came in February last year when the Sturgeon/Murrel police investigation blew up in the party’s face and he won the subsequent leadership election, trouncing Ash Regan, but not beating Kate Forbes by a decisive enough margin.
He had led a charmed life up to then but at this point things started to go wrong. Any new First Minster gets to select their Cabinet. But not only did Humza expand it to a record number of Cabinet Secretaries (10) and Ministers (18), they were all from his team during his leadership campaign. He did offer Kate Forbes a junior role which she unsurprisingly refused. Because of the SNPs legendary loyalty, nobody noticed the rift.
There followed a year of what can only be described as “bungling”. However well intentioned his “progressive” policies were, they lacked traction with the public. What people noticed was the dripping roast saga of the ferries, the futile attempts to take legal action against Westminster, the worsening NHS waiting times, poorer PISA education ratings, the lack of affordable housing, the slower dualling of the A9. In short, the public image was one of a decent guy out of his depth.
However, bubbling underneath all that was the volcano that erupted this week. The Greens had been in coalition for three years. They are perhaps the most idealistic and ideological of the Holyrood parties, but the Sturgen/Murrel straitjacket had kept them in their box. There had been unrest in SNP ranks over the Green priority placed on the Gender Recognition Bill. Ash Regan defected to Alba because of strong opposition to it. Lorna Slater had proved unable to make the Green flagship container return policy work, at a cost of millions to Scottish businesses. But it was when Mairi McAllan, a 31-year-old with three ministerial jobs under her belt in as many years as an MSP was sent out to announce that the much-vaunted carbon reduction target of 75% by 2030 was to be scrapped that Green anger erupted.
Whether Humza miscalculated that someone relatively junior could handle such a bombshell, or underestimated the strength of Green reaction does not matter. The point is, he made a bad decision. Patrick Harvie’s public dismissal of the Cass report on puberty blockers stirred further resentment in SNP ranks. Once the Greens called his bluff by announcing a party vote on whether the coalition should continue, he was on the back foot.
This demanded some kind of action on his part to regain control of the narrative. So, he called an extraordinary Cabinet meeting at Bute House on Thursday April 25th. It could not have gone far before the two Green ministers stalked out, presumably having been told that their heavy influence on the agenda was being lightened.
It should have been obvious that Tories and/or Labour would put down a motion of no confidence, as was that angry Greens would support it. The result is daily headlines, even in the London media, his jaiket hings by a shoogly nail.
The arithmetic is not propitious for Humza. In theory, he has 63 SNP MSPs backing him. His opposition consists of:
- Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party – 31 MSPs, Party leader – Douglas Ross
- Scottish Labour – 22 MSPs, Party leader – Anas Sarwar
- Scottish Green Party – 7 MSPs, Party leaders – Patrick Harvieand Lorna Slater
- Scottish Liberal Democrats – 4 MSPs, Party leader – Alex Cole-Hamilton
- Alba Party – 1 MSP, Party leader – Ash Regan
- The129th MSP has no Party Affiliation as the Presiding Officer – Alison Johnstone
In the quite possible event of a 64-64 tie, she would have a casting vote, with the heavy compulsion of tradition to cast it for the status quo. In that case, Humza would win and, technically, survive. But that only happens if Ash Regan (whom he dismissed as “a trifling loss” when she defected to Alba) is persuaded to support him. There are four other scenarios:
- At meetings this weekend, Humza persuades one of the three unionist opposition parties to at least abstain. Chances of this? 5%-to-HellFreezesOver
- He kisses and makes up with the Greens by re-accepting their key policies. Chances of this: 10-20—plus a certain SNP revolt to scupper him anyway.
- Colleagues do the dirty on him. There are plenty of disaffected SNP MSPs who railed under the Sturgeon cabal and are equally miffed at how Kate Forbes and her supporters were treated. Chances of this: 10-20%
- He accepts he made misjudgements and falls on his sword. Chances of this: 5%-to-HellFreezesOver. He is a golden boy whom fate has yet to teach fallibility.
While any forecast is fraught with imponderables, the smart money should go on the hung vote when everyone shows up, votes as whips dictate, and Ash throws him a lifeline.
As many, including Alex Salmond have pointed out, she is, in what the Americans call “the cat bird seat”. She can extract much from Humza in exchange for her single vote, without which or a miracle, he is doomed. She has written to him, making those demands clear. If he has any sense, he’ll accept.
But what if, with the wily Alex Salmond behind her, she is playing a longer game? What if, thanks to her, he survives and is deluded enough to think he can carry on as leader?
He might last to this year’s General Election. Whether he does or not, the men in grey kilts (in Mike Russel’s timeless phrase) will be at his door no later than the aftermath of losing several dozen Westminster seats to Labour, mostly around Glasgow.
The weakening of the progressive faction in the SNP could well be the trigger for a swing to the broader policy base of the bulk of the SNP. Whether this would be as radical as a return of Alex Salmond to his third stint as party leader is doubtful. Kate Forbes has been lying low and is unsullied by events. As leader, she will restore the party’s traditional broad church. And Ash will have been her Queenmaker.
The unfortunate thing is, Kate will be facing a decade in the wilderness before a broad enough spectrum of voters trust them not to fixate on non-mainstream policies, as Pied Piper Humza has led the present government to do.
“Independence for Scotland, protecting the dignity, safety and rights of women and children, and providing a competent government for our people and businesses across Scotland remain my priorities.”—Ash Regan MSP, letter to Humza Yousaf, April 26th 2024
#1110—1,245 words