Long Way to the Finnish Line

Posted on November 19, 2014 by davidsberry

To most Scots, of the key areas of policy already devolved to Scotland, Education ranks right behind Health and the NHS in terms of priority. Based on an early tradition of universal education, Scots have had a pretty good conceit of the superiority of a Scots education. But, since school leaving age was raised to 16 and universal comprehensive education was introduced forty years ago, that conceit has worn thin.

While—in common with England—the measures of academic performance for the last 15 years indicate steady improvement in exam results, most employers, colleges and universities (and in private, many teachers) see the measure as inflated and flawed. Despite what education professionals claim and undoubted abilities of better pupils, there is uniform condemnation of school leavers ill-prepared for work and, in many cases, innumerate if not actually illiterate.

Rather than argue the toss with no context, let’s look elsewhere for comparisons. In the early 1970s, Finland had an under-performing education system and a poor economy. The Finns knew that to achieve their goal of a knowledge-based society, the education system needed revamping. Finland’s agricultural economy had fallen into a steady decline by relying heavily on one product of which there is an abundance in their great forests: trees.

But only one out of every ten adults had completed more than nine years of a basic education. Holding a degree from a university was a rarity. Most children left public schools after six years while the rest attended private, folk, or academic grammar schools. The privileged few and the lucky ones received quality education. This is one reason why Finns now value equality over excellence of individuals. The not only emphasise but actually practice “equal opportunity to all”.

By 2006 the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) conducted a survey of 15-year-olds’ academic skills from 57 nations. Finland placed first in science by a whopping 5% margin, second in math (edged out by one point by Chinese Taipei), and third in reading (topped by South Korea). That they have been overtaken in recent years by Singapore, several districts of China and other Asian countries does not negate their remaining at the peak of Western educational attainment where they are being pursued by a variety of countries. But not Scotland or England, which languish around 25th place.

To listen to EIS and other teaching unions, money in the shape of teachers’ salaries and conditions are the answer. But statistics do not bear this out. Taking the difference in points between PISA scores in maths, science and reading OECD average and comparing this with the difference in percent between that country’s teacher salary and the OECD average gives a chart as shown below.

 

Comparison of PISA Scores & Teacher Salaries

Comparison of PISA Scores & Teacher Salaries

There is clearly little correlation between results and what teachers get paid and it appears that Danish children get a worse deal than Scottish for the money lavished on their education. The Irish cost more but seem to get better results. But the one that stands out (again) is Finland. Whatever their success in educating young Finns, it clearly doesn’t derive from their teachers’ high salaries.

At first glance, the Finnish educational system looks as if it were designed for slackers. Schools often have lounges with fireplaces but no period bells. Finnish students don’t wear uniforms, nor do they often wear shoes. (Since Finns go barefoot inside the home, and schools aspire to offer students a nurturing, homey environment, the no-shoe rule has some pedagogical logic.) And, although academic standards are high, there’s none of the grind associated with high-performance private schooling here in Scotland. Never burdened with more than half an hour of homework per night, Finnish kids attend school fewer days than 85% of other OECD nations.

Finnish teachers enjoy an equally laid-back arrangement. They work an average of 570 hours a year, much less than the Scottish average of 950 hours. They also dress casually and are usually addressed by their first name.But that does mean they do not receive huge respect.

When Finland began the first stages of remaking its education system, teaching made it to the top of the list. The first reforms relocated all teacher education from teacher colleges to universities, which enabled a higher level of professionalism and academic sophistication. In order to control quality and maintain standards, only eleven colleges and five vocational schools offer teacher education programmes. Of equal significance, further reforms have since required teachers to hold a master’s degree.

In Finland, teachers boast the highest vocational status (followed by doctors.) A full 25% of Finnish youngsters select teaching as their career goal, but only a fraction succeed. Under 13% of applicants gain acceptance into the masters’ degree in education program. Applicants usually come from the top quartile in their class and are accessed based on their upper secondary school record, extra-curricular activities, and their score on the Matriculation Exam. If the applicants make it past the first screening round, they are observed in a simulated teaching environment, and if they make it through this, they are then interviewed. Applicants who show a clear aptitude for teaching, in addition to strong academic performance in their interviews, are accepted.

Because of the fewer hours worked, Finnish teachers do earn hourly rates comparable to their Scottish colleagues. But the big difference is Finnish teachers enjoy immense independence. Allowed to design their own lesson plans and choose their own textbooks (following national guidelines), they regard their work as creative and self-expressive.

It all starts early. Finnish toddlers have access to free nurseries supervised by certified college graduates. Nurseries offer no academics but plenty of focus on social skills, emotional awareness, and learning to play—they don’t approach reading until age seven— learning other concepts first, primarily self-reliance. P1s are expected to walk unescorted through the woods to school and lace up their own ice skates.

Schools aren’t ranked against each other, and teachers aren’t threatened with formal reviews. At many schools, teachers set no exams until P5, and they aren’t forced to organise curriculum around standardised testing. Gifted students aren’t side-tracked into special programmes but struggling students receive free extra tutoring in the mainstream. Many teachers also stay with a single class for many years, moving with them through the school. School choice doesn’t exist; everyone goes to the same neighbourhood school.

After S2, students follow either an academic (53%) or vocational (47%) curriculum, which results in 96% of pupils leaving school with suitable qualifications. The Finnish curriculum is far less ‘academic’ than you would expect of such a high achieving nation. Pupils sit no mandatory exams until the age of 17-19. Teacher-based assessments are used by schools to monitor progress and these are not graded, scored or compared; but instead are descriptive and utilised as feedback and assessment for learning.

Finland’s academic success took smart planning, a willingness to take risks to achieve measurable and ambitious goals, patience, and fortitude —things our education system needs. With Finland’s retention rate for teachers is 97 percent (in Scotland, it’s 73%) there is a clear case for status, respect and autonomy, rather than financial reward, being the best motivators for exceptional teaching than creates a world-class education.

 

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Raining on Nicola’s Parade

Posted on November 17, 2014 by davidsberry

There is no question that the SNP Conference just finished in Perth was upbeat, professional, impressive and—because of the slew of new members present—one of the most open and exciting. Salmond didn’t disappoint in the choice of demeanour for his swansong: dignified but laced with humour and a touch of humility. After a decade of growing stature and success as Leader, he chose a shrewd time to go and various unionist attempts to portray him as ending in failure say more about the authors’ failure to grasp the zeitgeist than any real failure of Salmond’s.

Undoubtedly a hard act to follow, Nicola Sturgeon’s decade apprenticeship in his shadow stood her in good stead. She came out of the gate with a rousing, competent speech that was more subdued, more grounded, more content-rich than Salmond would have given and so set the tone that the guard had changed.

Nicola’s speech went down a storm with the faithful, as it usually does.  She has managed to appear more the hands-on activist that backbone SNP volunteers and office bearers take to their hearts. She went over very well with the feminist and Women for Independence factions (See Burdz Eye View for an enthusiastic but nonetheless measured take from this perspective.) Lesley Riddoch said “Incredible list of specific pledges in powerful well crafted speech by Nicola Sturgeon in first leaders speech”.

But it reached well beyond those likely to be sympathetic. More objective reporters were also well impressed: Ian MacWhirter said “Sturgeon lacks Salmond’s wit and rhetorical sweep. But forceful delivery and gave conference what they wanted.” while David Torrance enthused “Impressive first leadership speech (was) well crafted, bold social justice agenda, ecumenical tone and slick delivery.” Perhaps the wittiest observation came from Libby Brooks “I know as an upstanding feminist I’m not supposed to report on Nicola’s clothes, but she sure is stealing Labour’s right now”.

Which is a shrewd insight into what the speech appeared to be aimed at: Labour voters not yet part of the 70,000 new SNP members but whose loyalty has been undermined by the dearth of clear policy directions from anyone in Scottish Labour. The pledges Lesley Riddoch refers to will tug at the loyalties of Labour members and voters alike, such as:

  • Increase free child care to eligible 2/3/4-year-olds to 32 hours per week
  • Ensure that the Living Wage is adopted by everyone, including the Parliament
  • Increase NHS funding in real terms every year in this and the next Parliament

Such firm commitments wil go down a storm across urban Scotland—especially in those once-Labour strongholds that voted Yes. That includes Glagow, Dundee and South Lanarkshire. As political positioning to cut the legs off remaining Labour support across the Central Belt and boost the chances of the SNP decimating Labour MPs, this could scarcely be bettered.

Although most of the 41 current Labour seats could not be called marginal, the hill that the SNP vote would have to climb becomes credible once polling numbers reach unheard of heights like the 45% SNP vs 25% Labour that recent polls have indicated.

But such tactical advantage comes at a price. While the above pledges may please the faithful and seduce wavering Labourites, none are self-funding; their provision requires fiscal creativity. That does not necessarily mean high taxes; John Swinney has proved to be a skilled and steady hand on the budget tiller—but even he can’t work miracles.

So, whether it is a revamp of council tax or income tax, a mansion tax, or an equivalent of the innovative Land & Buildings Transfer Tax, it will hit the better off. Given the unbalanced society Cameron and Osborne seem hell-bent on creating, this may be no bad principle and look relatively popular in Scotland. Why? Because, unlike in England, after almost two decades in the wilderness, Scottish Tories appear incapable of fighting their way back from irrelevance.

And, despite all that has been written above, is a shame. That is for two reasons.

  1. The SNP is an amazingly coherent organisation, given it is such a broad church. To date, Salmond has worked miracles through leadership and strength of character to keep such broad opinions focussed on the prize. The net result has been a business-friendly, socially conscious balance. But, add the above list to free tuition, bus passes, eye tests, prescriptions, etc and something has to give.
  2. That coherence will not permit wide internal dissent without a factionalism that has blighted other parties but not—so far—the SNP. The natural balance of debate should be provided by someone like the Tories. But, since Bella and her shrewd influence left, not only do they continue ineffectually in the wilderness but they have had no ideas that carried into public debate to modify SNP policy.

So, the SNP are on a roll, surging behind a popular new leader and likely to mow down their main opponents in six months time, with nothing effective balancing their outmaneuvering of Labour on the left.

But if these clever tactics work, will Nicola be able to rein in the populist tendency or nervous members sitting on slim majorities that has scuppered Labour in the past? Irn Broon handed Blair squillions that bloated the social budget beyond affordability by pushing fiscal prudence out the window. That created the present mess that is proving hard to tackle even by un-squeamish right-wing Tories.

It may be negative thinking to posit a similar, if less severe scenario for Scotland. But unless John does work some fiscal miracle, unless Nicola is very frugal with all the extra demands her pledges make on finances (that still mostly come from a hostile Treasury), unless the SNP can—in the absence of effective opponents—train themselves in financial rectitude when their track record to date portrays the opposite, Scots will have their own austerity straitjacket strapped on them during the 2016-20 parliament.

And that will form a shoogly launch pad from which to seize opportunities from more devolution—never mind independence—that Cameron’s stumbling, Europhobic second administration is likely to then offer the SNP.

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Remembrance

Posted on November 11, 2014 by davidsberry

Today being the actual anniversary when 96 years ago the guns fell silent on the Western Front it seems appropriate to not just remember those who lost their lives serving in the British Armed Forces but why they were called tio make that ultimate sacrifice.

And, though the First World War caused unimaginable slaughter across all the countries engaged and signalled the end of European hegemony irreparably fracturing the dominant, highly stylised but overly smug Edwardian culture.

Though the Allies eventually won the war, in righteous triumph after so much sacrifice, they chose to ignore sage advice to treat gently with the defeated Central Powers. Their harsh terms sowed vigorous seeds of what would become the Second World War, a war that many have cynically regarded as the ‘second half’ of WWI.

Together, those two wars account for 1,287,000 British casualties or almost exactly 75% of the 1,678,000 total from military actions since the American War of Independence. A chart showing the casualties of individual wars underscores this.

British Military Casualties Since 1775

British Military Casualties Since 1775

The chart also shows that by far the most bloody conflict outside the two World Wars were the 331,000 soldiers and sailors who died in the Napoleonic conflicts. Given the war lasted over a decade and a half—even though there were pauses—the impact of industrial developments meant that individual conflicts were fought at deadlier range; better training for professional forces meant armies and ships engqged more closely and more resolutely.

Prior to the American Revolution, records, weapons and training were all haphazard affairs. After a hiatus of amateurism lasting 1,000 years after the Romans left, Cromwell put the Army on a professional footing, leading to the mass standing armies of the late 18th centurry.

Conceived for self-defence, they were also simply too good as tools of what Von Clausewitz called ‘diplomacy by other means’ not to be used for aggrandisement with the ill-defined, fluid borders of Central Europe. Britian’s naescent Navy asserted itself against Dutch maritime power for control of the seas. Prior to Napolean, Gustavus Adolphus of Sweden and Frederick of Prussia carved unlikely empires by drilling armies of professionals to march, volley and melee better than their opponent.

Well before then, the motivation for war had become highly commercial. England’s early hostility to Spain derived from their colonial ambitions and the money to be made bringing tobacco, potatoes, tomatoes and other lucrative goods home, It was only when France’s ambition clashed with Britain’s in North America, the Caribbean and India that they were revived as an object of venom.

Though much was made by Pitt at the time of the need for coalitions to deal with the ‘upstart Boney’ and his republican threats to the remaining monarchies, the real motivation was to ensure freedom of the seas. This, more than any moral imperative, was necessary so that Britain could dominate global trade upon which is was fast becoming rich. Nelson’s victories at the Nile, Copenhagen and Trafalgar were greeted with great relief at Westminster but even more so in The City.

Naval victories against a France were not, however, enough. It dominated the entire Continent and therefore most destinations of Britain’s trade—hence the heavy involvement in a Peninsular campaign, support for far-flung allies like Portugal and Russia and judicious local bribes like the £1m going to Brunswick to prop up a wavering United Netherlands.

Casualties over the couple of decades to 1815 were proportionately heavy as anywhere, dwarfing those suffered in earlier wars. Given that Bonaparte was exiled for good and peace reigned across Europe for a century, high principles were cited as justification for the unheard-of numbers of dead. But the dominance of British trade and industry through the following decades was no co-incidence.

The ensuing colonial wars that sputtered across the world in the 19th century and cost a cool 100,000 lives were fought against locals resisting becoming another pink part of the map. Some (such as Elohinstone’s disastrous Afghan campaign) could be seen in Kiplingesque “White Man’s Burden” terms. But those to secure Assam’s tea; to secure Egypt as a vassal so that tea trade would flow uninterrupted; to secure Kimberley’s diamonds and Jo’burg’s gold to finance the whole shebang had no such altruistic explanation, even as smokescreen.

And the problem with global reach is it provokes such a global myriad of enemies. Whether from the Opium wars, the Sudan campaign, the Indian mutiny or repressing the Boers, fallen redcoats were an integral component of the ‘lifeblood of empire’.

Indeed, the entire culture that has grown up to be seen as quintessentially English—the tough regimen of Eton and Harrow through to Oxbridge and Sandhurst was to train a constant flow of administrators and subalterns who formed the backbone of empire right up to its collapse in Britain’s post-WW2 overreach.

While taking nothing away from the cooly professional performance of the British Armed Forces that continues to this day, the country itself no longer has the fiscal or moral backbone to justify recent deployments. From the Falklands through Iraq to the present Afghan wind-down, everything has been done on a shoestring for questionable reasons that many in the country dispute.

Residual taste for conquest and its justification resides in the MoD, plus a cadre of politicians and retired colonels these days. The ‘Troubles’ in Ulster cost more lives than all the various independence movements in Malaya, Kenya, Cyprus, etc. Those, in turn, cost more than all the ‘small’ wars engaged in since Korea 60 years ago.

The British no longer have the stomach for this—even the 760 service lives lost in foreign operations spread over the last 35 years (since withdrawal from Aden and ‘East of Suez’). Even averaging that out to a loss every three weeks on such deployments now seems unacceptable to the public.

Contrast that with the glory days of empire when Britain lost someone every half an hour; commercial ambition (a.k.a. “the good of the country”) deemed such loss to be acceptable. For that if no other reason, we should remember them along with the tragic, deserving fallen of WWI and 2 and since.

Those earlier stalwarts also died ‘doing their duty’ but for causes much less ennobling, much more grubby than saving the world from the horrors of Nazism.

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The Wrong Plane We Can’t Afford

Posted on November 7, 2014 by davidsberry

An event that passed with very little comment this summer was the naming of the first of the Royal Navy’s two 65,000-ton aircraft carriers—HMS Queen Elizabeth—at it launching ceremony in Rosyth. It is the second warship so named in RN service. Its illustrious predecessor was the name ship of a class of five fast battleships completed during WWI. That 15-inch-gun ‘battlewagon’ gave sterling service in WW2 before being broken up at the Inverkeithing yard in the late 1940s not a mile from where the new ship now lies.

Massive and impressive though the new ship and its engineering may be, the normal delay for fitting out so any ship can be commissioned is, in this case, further delayed by problems with the sole reason for a ship such as this—aircraft.

Artist Impression of HMS Queen Elizabeth at Sea

Artist Impression of HMS Queen Elizabeth at Sea

Originally planned by the previous Labour government to fly the new American Lockheed Martin ‘Joint Strike Fighter’ (JSF) in its ‘jump-jet/STOL’ configuration (the F-35B), the MoD’s Strategic Defence Review of the carriers belatedly realised that the navalised version (the F-35C) would be the more cost-effective choice of aircraft.

Although not able to take off and land in the confined space of the F-35B, the F-35C was designed from the start as the carrier variant: it has a larger internal weapon bay to carry a bigger punch and would be cheaper in the long run, reducing “through-life costs by around 25%”. The F-35C has larger wings and more robust landing gear than the other variants, making it suitable for catapult launches and fly-in arrestments aboard full-scale aircraft carriers. Its wingtips also fold to allow for more room on the carrier’s deck while deployed.

The F-35C also has the greatest internal fuel capacity of the three F-35 variants, carrying nearly 20,000 pounds of internal fuel for longer range and better persistence than any other fighter in a combat configuration. As a result, US Navy orders are for F-35Cs for their dozen operational carriers; F-35B orders are all (other than the RN batch) from the US Marine Corps to replace their AV8 Harriers and designed to operate from austere (i.e. small) bases and air-capable ships near front-line combat zones.

But using the carrier variant requires catapults and arrester wires to launch and land aircraft from the deck. Despite meaning that this would then enable both carriers to launch and land American, French and other allies’ naval aviation, the redesign and rebuild of the carriers necessary at that late stage would have added another £2bn to the existing £6bn program costs and delayed completion of even the first carrier to 2027.

So the decision was taken to continue with the F-35B. This means tactical air operation aboard the carrier will be very similar to the now-scrapped Illustrious class small carriers that used to fly Harriers. This also explains the prominent ‘ski-jump’ launching ramp repeated on the bows of both new carriers.

F-35B Lightning II

F-35B Lightning II

But the the delay to equipping the carriers is as much due to delays in the more complicated F-35B (its Rolls-Royce patented shaft-driven LiftFan engine is showing teething troubles) as it is to the MoD being strapped for cash and delaying expenditure. Whatever the cause, it did not appear at the Farnborough Air Show (again) this year and the first of 48 aircraft at £70m a pop will not deploy on the carrier until 2020—three years after planned commission.

Undoubtedly a powerful unit once equipped, trained and deployed, Britain’s declining ability to project power globally begs the question why such a ship is necessary. There is also the small matter of vulnerability. As a Soviet submarine commander once quipped during a NATO visit: “You know what we call carriers? Targets!“.

Professor Michael Clarke, the director general of the Royal United Service Institute, says of the new carrier:

“It will be a strike carrier that will project power around the world. However, it will require most of the Royal Navy to support it and protect it, so it means we will in a sense design the navy around one carrier battle-group. That is pretty powerful, but it means putting a lot of eggs in one basket.”

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A Prefect to Sort Out the Primary Playground

Posted on October 30, 2014 by davidsberry

So the other shoe in the shape of Jim Murphy has dropped. Along with Neil Findlay and Sarah Boyack, the lineup looks a lot more credible than the dithering silence at the start of the week but this game is over before the kick-off whistle blows. Given her 15-year service and various posts held, Sarah is clearly the stronger of the two MSP contenders but this ‘contest’ is likely to be a demonstration of Westminster realpolitik played out against the primitive simplicity of miners’ welfare committee conventions that have served Scottish Labour so well for so long. Murphy’s campaign will make any MSP’s efforts look like 1939 Poland, sliced down by Blitzkrieg in short order.

Compared to Murphy and despite many positives, both Sarah and Neil are babes in the woods. They have spent their political life either in ineffectual government or as dazed opposition in Holyrood where a competent (but not brilliant) Salmond-led SNP have run rings around them so thoroughly that both Labour ex-First ministers are berating their and their colleagues performance. Having only been elected three years ago, Findlay could claim to dissociate himself from Labour’s Holyrood performance but doing so simply underscores his lack of readiness to be elected leader.

It is significant that none of the contenders hail from Labour heartlands and that both MSPs were elected on the Lothians list. And while Murphy hails from Glasgow it is by a tortuous road that includes South Africa and a Tory ‘safe’ seat. Dig deeper and you find a man so enamoured of politics that it distracted him so badly that in nine years he never completed his degree. His serial matriculation however did allow him to rise through and then run the NUS so fiercely that he was condemned by a House of Commons Early Day Motion introduced by Ken Livingstone and signed by 17 other Labour MPs for “intolerant and dictatorial behaviour”

For Murphy is that queer fish on the Labour benches—a self-made intellectual well honed in political arts who owes his place to neither union nor entrenched CLP mafia, driven by crusading personal ambition and not too distracted by awkward baggage like idealism. It is a political study in itself to see how—against all odds and largely dismissed as unwinnable by Scottish Labour at the time—he overturned Allan Stewart’s 11,688 (biggest in Scotland) majority in 1992 with a 14% swing in the legendary 1997 wipeout of Tory MPs.

This (and subsequent bolstering of his majority) was achieved through hard work applying his Blarite principles to appeal to ambitions of  douce middle class denizens of Neilston and Newton Mearns. To call him a ‘Red Tory’ would be unjust. But to think that he spent any time on the minimum wage or decrying Trident would insult his acumen. Since then, his ability to be what his audience wants to vote for has been astonishingly good. His ability to lambast the SNP within weeks of sounding the most emollient peacemaker was good; his consensual performance at 2013’s Festival of Politics was virtuoso.

Competent politicians can sound sincere; good politicians have a range of tones from intimately personal to braggadocio rostrum-thumping; Murphy is one of the few who can combine both.

And, though the professional posture can slip—as when he lost the rag at Pete Wishart in the voting lobby during the bedroom tax vote in April this year—the poise is seldom less than perfect. This was reinforced during his rather effective ‘Irn Bru Crate’ pre-referendum tour this summer when a Yes supporter caught him with an egg in Kirkcaldy. Not only did he neither cower nor run but he used it and a gullible press to highlight how irresponsible, how brutal, how uncaring about human dignity the Yes campaign had become. Of all the politicians in Scotland, few are as instinctive, as flexible, as unflappable as Murphy.

So, whether there are any more MSP contenders does not matter one whit; even a Westminster colleague shows an interest, that won’t matter—Murphy is used to running his own campaign against odds and adjusting to what is required. He will have calculated  his profile and growing reputation (in the media as much as the party) and judged it sufficient, especially against any MSP who has focussed almost entirely on party insiders to get where they are.

While the next month may quack like a contest, with Murphy portraying sincerity and reasonableness in any debates, much else will be going on below Joe Public’s radar. Given Jim’s ability to adjust to circumstances, no prediction can be wholly accurate but expect his Damascene conversion to Old Labour values (especially on the CLP stump), furious lobbying of the relatively few kingmakers in party, union and city hall and a fair few twisting of arms and calling in of favours (particularly among MPS) to leave as little to chance and the traditional buggins turn as feasible.

When he wins the leadership, expect a brisker, more plausible campaign across the Central Belt (he will leave those outside Labour core vote areas to fend for themselves) and a turnaround of support from the present dismal 26%, thereby stemming the present likeihood of circa 20 seats being lost to more like 10. Scottish Labour and its loyal core will be thereby relieved and hurry to secure Jim a seat in Holyrood for 2016. Suddenly Scottish Labour will be crisper, more its formidable old self and—to the faithful—all will seem well.

But, it will be the swansong of Old Labour here, rooted in our ex-industrial communities and woven into the social fabric by its social clubs. Having survived the ditching of Clause 4, 13 years of Blairism and the loss of half their council hegemony, its nemesis will be the smart leader, chosen in its hour of need, able to calculate the political price of everything to the last decimal point, but who, as London’s man in Scotland, knows the value of nothing.

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Sauce for the Gander

Posted on October 27, 2014 by davidsberry

Since the referendum, the NO campaign have exuded “well, that’s settled”, based on their 10%-margin win. But actually, they have been keeping their heads down because debate around any agreed devolution settlement—such as the Smith Commission is expected to come up with—has suddenly become messy. Squaring the disjointed policy circle that  Westminster parties have slapped together will be hard to merge within six weeks.

In the meantime, what would cement the SNP and other YES-supporting parties credibility is to pre-empt Curran’s ‘radical’ bid for resuscitation of Scottish Labour. Whether they can rediscover ‘core Labour values’ here while Milliband outflanks Tories and UKIP on immigration and Europe remains to be seen. But how to pre-empt? Simples. If more devolution is coming to Scotland, let’s devolve much more to local level.

Now that independence is parked, the SNP in general—(meaning John Swinney and Derek Mackay in particular) have an opportunity to reach out from the hothouse of Holyrood and engage civic Scotland. Lifting the dead hand of Labour from Scotland’s city halls is long overdue and full of potential. But, while all parties use their 1,200+ councillors as campaigning footsoldiers and locally trusted spokespeople, they have never given them scope to bring democracy closer to people in a way a tenth that number of MSPs bever could. It is well worth trying and should be done in phases:

Town Hall Devo: Phase I—Do Now

  1. Council budgets are mostly not raised in the local area—other than council tax, frozen now for 7 years, and some fees. John Swinney needs to take his foot off the councils’ collective neck and let them freely set council tax rates again
  2. Council tax banding itself is a joke: houses worth £200k pay as much as £2m or £20m mansions. It is regressive, hitting the less well off more. By doubling the bands and setting a ‘mansion tax’ flat percentage above £500k (see Ma Faither’s Howff Revisited) this could raise 25% (as opposed to under 20%) of council spending.
  3. Business rates may be collected locally but all go to Holyrood for ‘redistribution’. If half the £1.6bn raised were retained by councils, another 5% of their income would be raised locally and they would have far more incentive to grow local businesses.

Town Hall Devo: Phase II—Do Soon

  1. Planning—especially strategic planning—is a mess and demeaned by unseemly tussles between mandarins and developers. Local councils get told what to do and the shoddy city- and town-scapes we have been building are the result. City regions (no more than a half dozen) must be defined and given the power to plan infrastructure, transport, power and economic strategy as well as housing allocation. This will involve bulleting the largely ineffectual and remote Scottish Enterprise, HIE, NHS Trusts and regional transport authorities.
  2. Formation through 1. of incipient City Region Authorities who should gear up to handle all major public services delivered in their area, starting with NHS, business development and transport, followed  by water, police and fire services.
  3. Empowerment of CRAs to control train, bus, air, harbour and ferry services within their region, including route planning, single-ticketing, timetable co-ordination and ensuring freedom from monopolies commission interference
  4. Comprehensive attempt to revive community decision-making at ward level through community councils, area partnerships, community wellbeing that make binding decisions on council departments.
  5. Statutory requirement on public bodies to maximise the social, environmental and economic benefits of procurement and to make public all land held on their books for possible use for affordable housing.

Town Hall Devo: Phase III—Do Next

  1. Local Government Re-organisation on the basis of the half-dozen city regions become the principal elected body controlling most local government functions in their area and raising at least half of the revenue spent via council tax and local income tax. As well as the functions listed in II/1 above, education, social work, building maintenance and cultural services are controlled by a democratic body of no more than 50 councillors elected by proportional representation and sitting in the regional city.
  2. In parallel with this, those communities which opt to do so revive the burgh—a democratic body of 4-6 councillors and similar number of employees managing a clearly defined community, such as a school catchment area. Burghs would have responsibility for local planning, housing, basic local services (e.g. cleansing) contracted out, retail business, parks, recreation and tourism. Burghs would be allocated a fraction of council and business taxes levied in their area and have the right to vary the amount levied within that fraction. Consideration should be given to ensuring burgh councils are non-party-political, highly visible and fully accountable.
  3. Villages, rural areas and smaller towns not minded to re-form burghs would be administered by a department of the city region. Cities themselves would be special cases where considerably more functions might come under a body intermediates between burghs and city regions.

Whether the above will restore local democracy depends on how it is done. If it is done grudgingly and the Scottish Ministers handle the matter as they currently do with their one-size-fits-all planning cudgels, then it will be illusory devolution; local communities will feel duped into believing they are trusted with real responsibility.

But if local authorities really were given parity of esteem talked about in 2007 and empowered with real control and flexibility about how national policy was implemented, then the differences between Inverary and Inverure or between Hawick and Halkirk could be a driver of new ideas, a source of home-grown innovation that engages citizens with politics they connect to and understand. Otherwise the Holyrood bureaucrat will be seen as no more sensitive than the Westminster mandarin and an MSP as much a suit with a mouth as any London-fixated MP.

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John Maclean’s Body Is A-Spinning in his Grave

Posted on October 16, 2014 by davidsberry

These blogs have at times been scathing when referring to the Scottish Labour Party and for that no apology is offered. And yet, those who read them objectively will have realised that the positions taken were as much from sorrow as from anger. Historically they were once a real force for good. Starting with union intransigence post WW2 as heavy industries declined, their political wing—Labour—stood unquestioningly on their side.

Whether defending job demarkation in shipyards, firemen on trains that had no fires, craft differential pay or details of dockers’ pay when containers were the future, the stories are many and varied but all have a common outcome: failure. Despite flashes of initiative and dedication such as Jimmy Reid and UCS, the 1950s to 1990s are a catalogue of declining industries, diminished incomes and the extinction of heavy engineering as a Scots staple.

Labour played a dismal, reactionary role in all that. Given low wages elsewhere and booming global trade, some decline was inevitable. But Labour’s dogged efforts to shore up workers’ share of profits was understandable, even commendable. Had they succeeded, they might have been heroes in the way they had fought for and won decent pay, adequate benefits and tolerable conditions duing the first half of the 20th century.

Seeing Labour as their only champions, people across what became Scotland’s Rust Belt—West Central Scotland with outposts in West Fife, Clacks and Dundee—voted for them in such numbers that earlier representation by Liberals and Tories was wiped out. And, given they became the sole local power brokers, from City Chambers in George Square to Cowdenbeath Town Hall, Labour ran the local show; Miners’ Clubs as social centres; council house allocation; public service jobs (c.f. Monklands in the 1990s) went to those submitting the right-colour forms.

Despite the relative ineffectualness of the ‘feeble fifty’ Scots Labour MPs in the 1980s against Thatcherism, mine closure, poll tax, loss of last moderinsed industries (Linwood, Ravenscraig), Labour heartlands strengthened in solidarity and resistance. What else could they do? But somewhere in there, the ‘buggins turn’ system (loyal Labour members became councillors, board members, even MPs with little beyond loyalty to deserve it) became self-referencing and developed a pavlovian hostility to any who questioned it.

Throughout all this, Labour never wavered from its public message of ‘Labour values’—support for the poor and the vulnerable; rights for the disabled; protection for children; free health and education for all. Problem was that the advent of UK New Labour under Blair—while still protesting such values—went well outside their normal support base and pretty much sold their soul to the middle class and private sector devil. Until 2008, that appeared to work like a dream; more money was found/filched/borrowed; benefits went through the roof; ‘old’ Labour (i.e. Scotland) was content sharing in the results.

The fact that not one new—let alone wildly popular—policy has emerged from Scottish Labour since our Scottish Parliament was established 15 years ago seems to bother few.

Because these results mentioned held good up to and including the 2010 General Election. Brown may have lost but in Scotland, in spite of the 2007 shock of an SNP-run Holyrood, voters stayed in the Labour fold in droves to return 41 Labour MPs and only 6 SNP—five of which were from non-Labour areas. Adding in the fact that Labour was part of the recent ‘winning’ NO campaign in the referendum, many in the party are breathing sighs of relief and settling into the usual motions for next May, expecting business as usual.

But that is dangerous thinking. Unless some form of serious cross-party UK compromise on major devolution to Scotland via the Smith Commission happens, large chunks of the NO vote (who did so on the promise of something substantial short of independence) will join with the thousands of Labour voters who retched at being in the same campaign as the Tories and use the new widespread political awareness to reflect deeply where their vote might go. Assuming it will go to/stay with Labour is delusional.

Whether Labour needs Scotland or not to find a majority, they must do well in England in the first place. That has been called into question by several recent polls, the most recent of which is from Lord Ashcroft, looking at 11 marginal English constituencies with majorities of between 1,328 or 3.1 per cent (Brighton Kemptown) and 2,420 or 4.8 per cent (Gloucester). Their analysis is:

The overall swing from Conservative to Labour in this group of seats was 5 per cent, but as in previous rounds there was some variation between constituencies: from 2 per cent in Pudsey (a tie) and Gloucester (Tory hold) to 6.5 per cent in Hastings & Rye and 8 per cent in Brentford & Isleworth.

Though nine of these seats would change hands on the basis of these snapshots, Labour will not feel comfortable in many of them. Though Labour led by ten points in Enfield North and 13 points in Brentford, they were ahead by less than five points in Brighton Kemptown, Hove, Halesowen & Rowley Regis and Nuneaton.

Swings to Labour appear to be related to the UKIP presence, which varied significantly from one seat to the next. Nigel Farage’s party scored just 7 per cent in Brentford & Isleworth (where Labour’s share was up eleven points since 2010), but 24 per cent in Halesowen (where Labour were down by two points, though still just ahead).

As these figures imply, there was more direct switching from the Conservatives to Labour in Brentford than in seats where UKIP had jumped to a solid third place. This lends some support to the theory expounded in the recent Fabian Society paper Revolt On The Left, which suggests UKIP could hamper Labour in Tory-held target seats by diverting voters who might otherwise switch straight from blue to red – though the evidence so far is that this effect is not yet strong enough in these seats to counteract the erosion of the Tory vote.

So, areas of UKIP strength have every chance of derailing the Labour hope of a straight switch from Tory to them. Indeed, as many of those will be protest votes, the absence of fresh ideas, which UKIP seem to offer (even if half-baked) will erode Labour votes.

Which puts even more burden on Scotland to deliver their 41 MPs. Or more, if possible. But the strongest YES votes came from just those areas that represent(ed?) Labour heartlands. And now an analysis published this week in the Herald shows the biggest surge in the tripling of SNP membership also comes from those very same ‘heartland’ areas. Throw into the equation the fact that the latest YouGov poll for GE2015 in Scotland puts Labour at 28% and SNP at 45% (vs 42% and 20% in GE2010) and alarm bells should be ringing 24/7 throughout John Smith House.

Were such a swing of 20% to happen and the SNP finally to grab serious share in a Westminster vote too, it would be a disaster verging on a wipe-out for Labour. Even the most sanguine SNP psephologist does not expect that. However, were we to take no more than half the polled swing, dependent on the flood of new SNP members in key Labour seats, it still makes ugly reading for the SLP.

Labour could expect to lose the following seats to the SNP:

  • Airdrie & Shotts
  • Dundee West (the last non-SNP holdout in ‘YES City’)
  • Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East
  • East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow
  • Falkirk (where ex-Major Joyce has blotted both his & Labour’s copybook)
  • Glasgow East (Margaret Curran—held by John Mason prior to that)
  • Glasgow North
  • Lanark and Hamilton East
  • North Ayrshire and Arran
  • Ochil and South Perthshire

Many more would become marginal, the closest (within 2,000) including Glasgow Central, Livingston, Kilmarnock & Loudon and Linlithgow & East Falkirk. The Lib-Dems are likely to do just as badly proportionately, holding on to Orkney & Shetland, Northeast Fife and Ross, Skye & Lochaber but losing:

 

  • Argyll and Bute to SNP
  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk to Conservative
  • Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross to SNP
  • East Dunbartonshire to Labour
  • Edinburgh West (probably to Labour but a close 4-way call)
  • Gordon to SNP
  • Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey to SNP (Danny Alexander’s seat)
  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine to Conservative

Such a result would see:

  • Labour reduced by eight to 33 MPs
  • SNP much stronger going from six to 20
  • Lib-Dems quartered to just three
  • Tories enjoying a modest revival with three.

Such a result would not necessarily disable Labour ambitions to form a Westminster government but their performance would be unrecognisable to the party’s founding fathers as Blair was. Whether that further fragments the former heartlands remains to be seen. But losing anything like the ten seats listed above will create huge cracks in a once-monolithic edifice. The good news is it will make Labour actually work for once.

Meantime, that record 20 SNP MPs may outnumber any other smaller party—almost certainly Greens, Plaid and even UKIP—and may even contend with the LibDems as the third force, should England give them the trouncing they seem about to get in Scotland.

And if Alex were to use his newly free time to be re-elected as an MP (say, for Gordon?) to lead that formidable group, look out for fireworks and anything but Westminster business as turgid usual, espcially when contrasted with the comfy quiescence typical of most Scottish Labour MPs.

 

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Support Catalan Petition

Posted on October 15, 2014 by davidsberry

The Scottish independence referendum has shown that the best and fairest way to make crucial political decisions is an open public debate followed by a democratic vote.

In accordance with the Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia and the Catalan Popular Consultation Act, the Catalan Parliament has decided to hold a non-binding vote to consult Catalan citizens on whether Catalonia should become an independent state. Under the mandate of Parliament and in compliance with these laws, the President of the Generalitat (the Catalan head of government) has called for the vote on November 9.

Despite the lawful and legitimate decisions by the Catalan institutions and the wide support among the Catalan population (between 75-80% according to various polls), the Spanish government is adamantly opposed to this vote on that or any future date, and it is determined to stop it at all costs.

Spain is repressing the efforts of a significant part of Catalonia’s population to have a referendum much as Scotland just held whether it should remain a province of Spain or become an independent country. An on-line petition is seeking support for this and can be found at:

http://votecatalonia.org/

What impressed me about the short form you fill in is that their country pull-down menu included Scotland. The English text of the petition you would be signing is as follows:

We firmly support the right of the citizens of Catalonia to be consulted about the political status of their country in a free and fair vote. Whether Catalonia remains a part of the Spanish state or becomes an independent and sovereign state is a decision that need only be taken by the Catalan population.

We therefore entreat all interested parties to facilitate the holding of a vote, where all adult Catalan citizens, without distinction of gender, age, creed or origin should be allowed to express freely their preference on whether Catalonia should or should not become an independent state.

We believe that the option chosen by the majority of Catalans should be accepted by all parties and the international community, as a democratic expression of the will of the Catalan people.

Thus, we petition to support the holding of this vote and to make all necessary efforts to ensure that its result is respected in accordance with the most fundamental principles of democracy.

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CA 94027

Posted on October 9, 2014 by davidsberry

Another American TV import about spoiled teenagers wrapping their new red Ferraris round palm trees because they were jilted by a blonde in training for The Real Housewives of Orange County? No. It doesn’t even refer to the sunkissed boulevards of the Southland. But it is in California.

What CA 94027 refers to is the ZIP code (US for ‘Postcode’) for Atherton, a name hardly known outside the Bay Area in Northern California. Technically one of the many sprawling suburbs of San Francisco, Atherton lies about halfway down the peninsula, nestled between Menlo Park and Palo Alto to the south and Woodside and Redwood City to the north. It is also the most expensive place to lice in the US for the second year round.

The most expensive home currently on the market there is a 12,840-square-foot (1,204 sq. m.) Mediterranean mansion with a $21.988 million (£13.7m) price tag. The least expensive home for sale is a 1,370-square-foot (152 sq. m.), two-bedroom, two-bath bungalow—what locals call a starter home–with an asking price of $1.499 million (£936k).

Despite what you may believe, Atherton beats out anywhere in Miami, Los Angeles, Washington, Boston, Philadelphia or their suburbs. New York is closest on its heels: Long Island’s Sagaponack 11962 takes the No. 2 slot, followed by three consecutive New York City ZIPS: Lower Manhattan’s 10013 (No. 3), the Upper East Side’s 10065 (No. 4) and 10075 (No. 5).

Atherton pips ’em all because of its proximity to Silicon Valley and  its technobillionaires. Apple, Facebook, Oracle, Google and Cisco are all a 20-minute drive away and San Francisco no more than double that. The nearby Santa Cruz mountains offer tree-lined vistas over the Bay and the Pacific and hiking trails among the towering redwoods. And Atherton’s relatively relaxed building regulations means Atherton Avenue is full of huge construction, 12,000-square-foot ‘statement’ homes.

This is partly a result of strict city regulations forbidding plots smaller than an acre in size. The land costs at least as much as elsewhere in the Bay Area and so only the rich can afford to build big and bold homes to take advantage of all that space. The net result is wierd: no downtown of shops, etc, nor even pavements—just wide streets with tree-lined fenced estates that have automatic electric gates guarding the entrance to each sweeping drive to a house that can’t be seen from the street. If you visit hoping to rub shoulders with Ty Cobb or Lindsey Buckingham or Farzad Nazem, forget it. You won’t even recognise their car flashing by.

Originally known as Fair Oaks, in 1923, the nearby city-to-be of Menlo Park wished to incorporate its lands to include this area. During a meeting of the representatives of the two communities, Fair Oaks property owners realised keeping their community as a strictly residential area required separate incorporation. Both groups rushed to Sacramento but the Fair Oaks committee arrived first. As there was already a Fair Oaks near Sacramento, they decided to honour Faxon Dean Atherton (one of the first property owners in the area. Atherton was incorporated an area of 5.049 sq. miles (13.076 sq. km.) on September 12, 1928.

The government was established with Edward E. Eyre as the first mayor. In 1928, the residents voted to build a Town Hall, which stands today. The author Gertrude Atherton (Faxon D. Atherton’s daughter-in-law) wrote in “The Californians“, “Atherton has been cut up into country places for what might be termed the ‘old families of San Francisco’, the eight or ten families who owned the haughty precinct were as exclusive, as conservative, as any group of ancient country families in Europe.” The local explosion of Silicon Valley and the shed-loads of dosh made therein has done nothing to change that.

So, even today, traffic consists partly of very expensive, mostly foreign cars (plus the odd Humvee) and an assortment of trade vehicles as gardeners show up to mow the lawn, pool maintenance sweeps the inevitable pool and Beltramo’s delivers that week’s champers etc to keep the wet bar and the one in the ‘romper room’ stocked. And yet, the road is lined not just with mansions but the usual US urban blight of power lines draped the length of the road on poles.

Which is a hint of a second reason for Atherton’s popularity among the seriously rich—low city taxes. Inhabited exclusively by the rich, what need is there for common social provision, let alone any public provision for aesthetics? That goes as far as eschewing museums, libraries and even schools (although 4-year private Menlo College is allowed in). Children are freighted out to private schools or go to local schools run by other cities. And so, other than contracting with nearby fully functional cities for waste disposal, police and fire, the overhead for living here (San Mateo property taxes aside) is surprisingly light.

In Atherton, the American shibboleth of market forces finds its ultimate expression. Far more exclusive than upmarket districts of cities, more so than even the gated communities where mostly retirees cower behind security guards at the gate and trim-mowed parklets where dog fouling is a major felony, Atherton has achieved distinction as the equivalent of the cuckoo in the nest or the cancer tumour in the body, living happily on the hard work of life around it, contributing as little as it can in return.

It is a monument to flawed ambition of those who know the price of everything but the value of nothing.  As a recipe for a dysfunctional community, it could hardly be bettered. Its divorce rate is high; among adolescents age 15-19, suicide is the third most common cause of death (after car accidents and homicide). No wonder divorce lawyers and therapist offices populate the office complexes of nearby Redwood City and Menlo Park. Atherton embodies the saying “Money doesn’t buy you friends—but it does get you a decent class of enemy.“

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A Richt Gaggle o’ Soothmoothers

Posted on October 7, 2014 by davidsberry

Orcadians can be subtle—but usually not when referring to people from ‘Scotland’ (as they call the land to their south; they have a Mainland of their own). The title of this blog came verbatim from farmer from Orphir debarking from the M.V. Hamnavoe to be met by his wife at Stromness pier in reply to her query how busy the voyage was. Scots can also be a bit like that when it comes to Sassanachs. But, thankfully, we have realised it’s a half millennium since Flodden and tourism offers major opportunities in the 21st century.

This summer, Barclays bank published a rather upbeat analysis of tourism potential in Scotland, done for them by retail research agency Conlumino.  Increase in UK domestic tourism of 27% was expected to be surpassed by foreign tourism increasing by 33% to give a total market of over £135 billion by 2017. The general upward trend of tourism in the UK was even better in certain parts, especially London and Scotland.

The top four countries supplying the UK with international tourists—USA (10.8%), France (6.6%), Germany (6.2%) and Australia (5.0%) will be joined by China (3.9%) within four years; no other country will have a share greater than 3%. The proportion of retail spend by international visitors is expected to remain steady at twice that of domestic tourists. But their actual spend on accommodation, dining and leisure are each expected to increase by around 33%.

Those international visitors are expected to increase the proportion of their spend in London from 62.9% to 64.0% by 2017, a stunning £15.1bn total. The only other UK ‘region’ to increase its share of the cake is Scotland—from £1.6bn to £2.4bn and taking 8.5% to be bigger than any other English region, N. Ireland or Wales. Total tourist spend in Scotland is expected to top £15bn by 2017. Opportunities, indeed.

Credit for such increases are generally given to Scotland’s strong image and reputation, as well as coherent marketing, especially by VisitScotland. Whatever the reason, across Scotland, socks need to be pulled up if such an influx of new visitors is to go home with smiles, memories and an inclination to recommend the experience to their friends. (Source of all charts below is the Barclay’s paper cited above)

Projection for Overseas Tourism Spend in Scotland

Projection for Overseas Tourism Spend in Scotland

Projection for Domestic Spend in Scotland

Projection for Domestic Spend in Scotland

Projection for Total Growth in Tourism in Scotland

Projection for Total Growth in Tourism in Scotland

All three charts contain good news for tourism-related businesses—and even simple infrastructure staples like ScotRail benefit. North Berwick station now sees over 500,000 passengers each year. Ten years ago, the figure was 360,000. Over one half of the growth came in leisure travel and a higher proportion (perhaps one in four) were overseas tourists who arrive by air and don’t trust themselves on our narrow roads in a right-hand-drive car. That means not just more ScotRail income but a filling of empty trains heading out of Edinburgh in the morning and returning in the evening—a contraflow to commuters.

Overseas spending on fashion retail is expected to rise by 42%. This means the Jenners-style outlets should do well, providing a wide range of Scottish-sourced goods in an historic ambiance. Although larger, domestic retail is only expected to rise by 30%. But, since many of those are English, the same advantage accrues to distinctly Scottish outlets. Locals in Kirkwall tend to sniff at the Orkney Soap, Jane Glue and Jolly’s outlets in the main street but these places do a booming trade with cruise liners that call regularly.

Overseas tourist spend on accommodation and eating out is set for a 40% growth, so hotels who understand their market will profit hugely. A good example is the seriously off-the-beaten-track Moor of Rannoch Hotel that recently won the Cesar Newcomer of the Year award, thanks to its blissfully isolated location with board games and books replacing radio, TV and wi-fi. Those satisfied employing untrained teenage serving staff who snottily tell guests that the kitchen is now closed for lunch at 2:04pm are likely to get short shrift.

But the biggest growth expected in all sectors are leisure attractions, projected to grow by over 46%. Given that top places like Edinburgh Castle are already overcrowded in the height of the season, this implies that creative new activities like the Foxlake wakeboard park or Glenkinchie distillery in East Lothian ought to benefit by overspill that is the zoo of Edinburgh in the summer. But even in far Orkney, the Orkney Brewery and Highland Park distillery already attract record numbers by having friendly sales areas and restaurants as well as tours and tastings.

Having recorded a bumper summer on the back of the 2014 Commonwealth Games, Glasgow is finally elbowing its way into a position to capitalise on these opportunities. Long famous for being dressier and more fashionable than their Edinburgh counterparts  its Style Mile is drawing in tourists as well as locals. Added to the Kelvingrove and the Science Centre (as well as the SECC) and a pivotal jumping-off point for Scotland’s magnificent West Coast, there are now as many overseas visitors each year as there are population (600,000). The £300m refurb of the Buchanan Galleries and the £390m redevelopment around George Square ought to set the city on track to meet the 2017 opportunities.

Barclays paper provides a case study of the Corinthia Hotel in London. The 5-star 300-room hotel has carved itself a niche in a very crowded Central London market. It owes its success to a deep understanding of needs of its customer base and how to capitalise on the hotel’s surroundings to fulfill them. It concludes with a series of a half-dozen considerations with associated bullet points how tourism businesses can pro-actively grow their market share.

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