It’s hard not to get excited by headlines like “SNP on Course for Landmark Victory” (STV website), especially on the eve of the poll itself. As a launchpad, it’s hard to whack.
If this were indeed the proportion voting for parties across Scotland, then the 18% gap that has opened would see historic shifts in seats, including East Lothian going SNP for the first time with the unheard of consequence of a Labour leader losing his seat..
Given an unusually high number of undecided voters at this stage, none of the above can be considered definitive. But anything like it would allow the SNP to govern as a strong minority party, picking allies from the other four as it wished, including tabling a referendum bill with Green support. And to claim, as Labour has, that this would distract from recovering the economy and providing jobs is simply to judge others by their own weak standards.