(“Trump Always Chickens Out”)
“We didn’t start this war”—Pete Hegseth, March 4th 2026
Enjoyment of late Spring this year has been spoiled by a barrage of human and economic disruption caused by the Iran War. Trump and Netanyahu colluded to crib a page from Putin’s abrasive playbook, viz: if you want to punish a country for displeasing you, forsake any niceties of international order and wage war on them.
Though the origins of this hostility are deep and tangled, over the last half-century, relations between Iran, and the USA+Israel have been poisonous. After post-WW1 dominance of the Persian Gulf, British companies that led exploitation oil resources in the region.
Persia resisted this British influence, spanning 19th and 20th centuries, maintaining sovereignty against colonial encroachment. Resistance included the 1856-1857 Anglo-Persian War over Herat province, protests against economic concessions. Occupation by the Allies during WW2 to link with the Soviets, thenthe nationalisation of oil resources under Mohammad Mosaddeq catalysed hostility towards the West.
The last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi succeeded his father in 1941 and, by exploiting his country’s developing oil wealth through US oil giants amassed a family fortune, becoming a poster boy in rich playboy circles. This was resented across poor, devout Sunni Moslem subjects, and against copious US support. This tension triggered the 1979 revolution to depose the Shah, establishing a cleric-led Islamic republic, rebranding the country as Iran.
Because of their support for the Shah, Americawas decried as “The Great Satan”, inciting the students to storm the US embassy , taking 66 US citizen hostage. Most were held until January 1981, despite President Carter authorising an abortive rescue attempt, that left the hostages un-rescued, and several helicopters abandoned in the Iranian desert.
Meanwhile, the Arab states surrounding Israel came off badly in the 1967 & 1973 wars. America’s profligate backing for Israel’s occupation and high-handed treatment of occupied Palestinian territories prompted Iran to counter Israeli dominance by funding and arming anti-Israeli movements in Gaza (Hammas), Lebanon (Hezbollah) and Yemen (Huthi
“The clock is ticking”. They better get moving fast, or there won’t be anything left of them, time is of the essence!”—Donald Trump on Truth Social, May 18th 2026
Outside IDF strikes, most damage was wreaked by the ~90-strong air groups on the USS Abraham Lincoln and Gerald Ford carriers operating in ‘blue water’ of the Gulf of Arabia. If the war was truly over, why are 5,000 US troops being deployed to the Gulf.
Originally intended to be over in a couple of weeks, the war dragged on for six. Despite supposed talks on a ceasefire, Iranian resilience and intransigence blocking the Straits of Hormuz to shipment of 20% of the world’s oil and LNG has constricted economies globally.
American and Israeli officials have been criticised for pushing the campaign against Iran is a religious war. Hegseth cribbed e.g. ‘rock’ and ‘shield’ from psalm 144 in his speech.
Most observers see this as Iran ‘winning’, despite bluster from Trump and Hegseth to “blow them back to the Stone Age”. Bluster aside, there has been no significant action for a month, implying Trump has succumbed to pressure to let things cool off. A handful of ships have already passed Hormuz with oil to China and Korea.
Grievous civilian casualties, threats and macho bravado have yet to make the Iranians blink, let alone concede. Rather than escalate, it seems Trump is the first to blink—and back down, as he habitually when his bullying fails.
“The US failed to make any concrete concessions to Tehran, with the semi-official Mehr news agency saying a lack of compromise would lead to an “impasse in the negotiations”— Esmail Baghaei, Iranian foreign ministry.
I am holding off a military attack on Iran as serious negotiations are now taking place. I have been asked to do so by (Arab leaders)—Donald Trump on Truth Social, as reported by BBC News
How long the world (or even his own people) will tolerate such erratic bullying by the “Leader of the Free World” is imponderable but history is unlikely to be kind.
#1018—687 words
davidsberry 