11: Not Part of the Plan

Posted on April 24, 2011 by davidsberry

As witnessed by the front page of the Courier a couple of weeks back, a local debate on 500 houses planned for Grange Road in North Berwick has resurfaced. This echoes headlines earlier this year about 750 houses at Letham in Haddington or 1,000+ at Blindwells in the West. While I do not wish to prejudge any planning application associated with these, the chances of approval are high because housing development on all three was clearly indicated in the adopted Local Plan of 2008. Protest might be more effective if it were to consider how new residents of any of these could earn a crust.

For that is the tragedy of the last fifty years across East Lothian: a boom in building; an influx of residents, then daily exodus to where the jobs are. Not all effects of this have been negative. Train services have improved, with civic infrastructure—schools, libraries, sports centres, etc—part funded by developers. But the net effect is imbalance. Our towns provide jobs for only a fraction of their residents. Good jobs are in Edinburgh or Livingston; East Lothian’s economic backwater has a per capita GDP below Turkey’s.

When challenged about this, council planners and EDU have shrugged, claiming there was no demand for business land; Spott Road has unwanted space, the Mitsubishi, Mid Road and Ben Sayers factories all stand empty, along with Macmerry offices and units. What an unimaginative counsel of despair from those in charge of our county’s future!

Edinburgh made (and still makes) a bundle on the Gyle. By buying and developing acres of land that would be serviced by the (then) new A720 and two new stations, they took Edinburgh business from RBS to two-man consultancies out of the West End and into the 21st century. We need nothing on that scale. But why aren’t the fields around both Musselburgh and Wallyford stations, with their instant A1/A720 access not part of our plans? Elvingston Science Park at Gladsmuir is another model; why aren’t similar schemes proposed adjacent to Longniddry or Drem (or for that matter, East Fortune and East Linton) stations?

If keeping industrial units at Macmerry filled is all the horizon our ambition can see, it’s time we shook up the smug complacency of our planners, who seem to think that by avoiding prosecution by house developers, they have fully discharged professional duty and earned one of the few professional salaries available within East Lothian.

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12: If I Were a Betting Man…

Posted on April 23, 2011 by davidsberry

A Happy St George’s Day to all our English readers!

Confronted yesterday by one of my tireless volunteers who smirked “I’m going to make money off you”, I was unsure whether to be happy for them or wonder if my overdraft was under (more) threat. But it turned out that he’d put his money where my mouth is and got 7:1 odds from William Hill before they shortened to 5:1 yesterday. This is encouraging but throws me into a dilemma because, as a sceptical scientist an with understanding of statistics, I’ve never even bought a lottery ticket.

Odds Available on East Lothian Constituency Results April 22nd

I doubt that many local voters consider the betting odds before casting their vote but, unlike the pollsters and their predictions, these odds are life or death to betting companies and you can rest assured that such odds are not offered without solid reasons behind them. Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “As the gamble on the SNP winning the Election has gathered pace so have the suggestions that even leader Iain Gray may not be secure in his own constituency – and thus far we haven’t taken a single bet of over £10 on him winning the seat”. 

Which is why when ELC Labour Group Leader Willie Innes is quoted as saying: “Quite honestly, this is just ridiculous. There is absolutely no chance of this happening. I think it is just bravado from the SNP” I get deeply encouraged. I have watched Willie’s plausible bluster get exercised across the council chamber for 12 years now. But, in fact, either he sees his Leader’s future as worth no more than a £10 punt or he hasn’t put any money where his mouth is. Either way, it seems to me he’s actually betting I will win.

‘Scuse me—I’m off down the bookies.

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13: Unlucky for Some

Posted on April 22, 2011 by davidsberry

Into the last but one lap and all four parties in East Lothian are pouring a blizzard of leaflets through letterboxes as the weather stays benign enough for them to get as many feet on the street as they can manage. Compared to so-called ‘target’ seats like Dundee West, there actually aren’t that many, as disillusionment and tight budgets are having an effect. In fact locally, the Lib-Dems are notable by their absence as those they can mobilise are drafted in to defend those seats they had in Edinburgh and the Borders. The Tories locally are playing their normal low-profile phone-oriented campaign of shoring up known supporters and ignoring half the county.

But Labour is scrambling. Not only is their candidate spending most of his time elsewhere—like the surprise appearance yesterday with Gordon Brown to try to win back Dunfermline—but voters are commenting on leaflets that are not only chaotic in both design and message but make bizarre assertions to the amusement of many even in Tranent and the Pans like “fighting for mining communities” when the last mine here closed half a century ago. But what really shows desperation is that candidate-signed “sorry you were out” cards are being put through doors not only when he wasn’t even around but without knocking the door in the first place.

All of which encourages the SNP greatly. Other than media appearances (East Coast FM this morning and Forth FM Tuesday morning) Dave and his team are now focussed following up with voters we had already spoken with, talking to the many we found who were fed up with the party they had once regularly supported but were not yet clear if they would vote SNP. There are so many of them, it’s a daunting task to get round all the doors but it’s most rewarding since half have made peace with whatever dilemma held them back.

Perhaps most telling is are the increasing isolation of solid Labour support. Chapping doors in Muirpark or the Bottom Pans ten years ago was a depressing experience: door after door was once “Nae chance; ah’ve aye been Labour” or even more galling “Ach, ah’d vote fur ye son, but yes’ve nae chance”. A week may be a long time in politics; ten years can make things totally unrecognisable.

"Yes, We Must All Learn to Think for Ourselves!"

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14: Who Reports on the Reporters?

Posted on April 21, 2011 by davidsberry

Anorak that I am, my idea of a time off last night was to head to the David Hume Institute to catch one of their excellent seminars, this time from Blair Jenkins, Fellow of the Carnegie Trust UK  to talk about Journalism in the Age of Disclosure. He was joined on the panel by Athol Duncan, his replacement as Head of News & Current Affairs at the BBC, Iain MacWhirter, the Herald’s political commentator whom I regard as the best in Scotland and Prof. Philip Schlesinger, Chair of Ofcom.

Blair’s argument was that disclosure may prevent a culture of abuse but that requires a higher level of journalism as the scrutiny applies there as well. Given the shrinking revenues for print media and that few have cracked how quality journalism can tap commercial opportunity in the internet, there is a direct conflict here between bigger demand but fewer resources.

This can lead to superficial relations with those being reported on, as when a cosy US media missed the financial crash of 2008. Over here, MacWhirter was alone in ringing the alarm. However the MP expenses story was one of exemplary investigative journalism by the Telegraph, which, despite is long support for the Tory party, treated all MPs to the same scrutiny and spotlit abuse, irrespective of party. In contrast, the sting on L-D ministers that caught Vince Cable fulminating about Murdoch broke many rules as entrapment journalism.

The most interesting part was where this all might lead and whether the relatively scarce media in Scotland could survive as a financially viable centre in its own right. The panel agreed that outsourcing the difficult investigative work to bodies like Pro Publica in the US, much as TV production is frequently done by outside companies may be the model. But until the Press Complaints Commission becomes independent of the business itself, they will always suffer suspicion.

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15: Down at the Roots

Posted on April 20, 2011 by davidsberry

Our beautiful coast and endless vistas on the Lammermuirs are key parts of our identity but what makes East Lothian so photogenic is our rolling countryside, tended and cropped for centuries by our local farmers. And it’s a varied crop; although livestock has fallen out of favour, cereal and root crops remain strong and pockets of specialist output like Ballencreiff pigs and Belhaven soft fruit both fit well with ELC’s Food & Drink strategy in support of tourism.

The NFU released its own manifesto earlier in the month. In it were a series of broadly couched concerns that I found reasonable and measured. As a local candidate, I have no authority to sign my party up to all it contained. But, if elected as spokesman for East Lothian, I will be its champion and take its farmers’ concerns to the government. For several years I have been chatting informally with the NFU’s East Lothian President, Stuart McNicol of Castleton.

This week’s release of the SNP’s Farming Manifesto 2011 should be good news for our farmers. Its thrust is to ensure that agriculture continues to play a vital role in contributing to Scotland’s sustainable economic growth and that food production remains the primary aim of agriculture in Scotland. At the same time we want our landscapes, biodiversity and water quality protected. We want to support both the rural economy and its infrastructure. This latter is especially vital here, Whereas the Mearns or Buchan suffers little development pressure, we are so close to Edinburgh that the needs of farms and small villages are in danger of being swamped by town priorities and values.

But we will build for the future, supporting the role of tenant farmers and new entrants to the industry. We will also use our experience of the last 4 years to ensure that Scotland’s voice is heard in Brussels so that EU policy is shaped to meet our more particular Scottish needs. As a priority we need, for example, to simplify payments. The continuing administrative problems in England with the Rural Payments Agency means we should reject current proposals by the European Commission, which would see the current complex and bureaucratic system of direct payments replaced by one that could be even worse.

“I am backing the SNP for a second term in government as they have proved themselves to be a full partner in farming, rural issues  and especially Scotland at large.”

—John Kinnaird, livestock & cereal producer of Papple and past NFU Scotland President.

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16: Double Dicker

Posted on April 19, 2011 by davidsberry

East Lothian likes to see itself as a cut above many other places. But one area where locals think it comes nearer the bottom of the league is in bus services. To some extent, this isn’t fair. The two main bus corridors in the West: through Musselburgh to Wallyford and Tranent and through Musselburgh to Prestonpans and Port Seton are so well served there are complaints about the number of buses clogging the High Street and Newbigging. It’s also possible to go anywhere in Edinburgh for £1.20.

But outside this area the story’s very different. Why? It’s all down to deregulation, a Thatcher favourite that New Labour embraced as with so much else. Bus companies can run services and charge fares as they like. In big cities like Glasgow, competition might keep down fares and sharpen competition but in rural East Lothian, that’s a cruel joke. First runs the two main bus routes through the rural 80% of the county and, lacking competition, charge what they like: it’s over a fiver return from East Linton to Haddington. On vital routes they deem unprofitable, the council picks up the tab, which is where most of their £750,000 bus budget goes.

Recently First got outrageous, cutting the Dunbar service to hourly, pulling it from the Brodie Road estates it served and running a fleet of tired coaches with steps so high even elderly and buggies can’t board, let alone disabled. Even if you can get on, it won’t take you to Tranent because the service is now ‘express’. Pencaitland and Ormiston are already up in arms for what they get charged to reach Tranent and now Elphinstone is to lose its weekend service and Port Seton its expresses.

The result is that bus travel is getting a terrible name, which is unfair to Eve’s, Prentice and Perryman’s, small bus companies who all run excellent local services with council help. But should any of them try to compete with First, they would lose the ensuing bus war of cross-subsidised low fares and frequent service until they gave up. Then back to indifferent service with high fares.

The only viable solution is to re-regulate buses and put them under local control. Then sensible ideas like transfers and day tickets—maybe even London-style Oyster swipe cards would make using buses so much faster, easier, better and thereby popular. Labour dickered for ten years then brought a half-baked bill that the last government dickered with too. If elected, I commit to putting s bus re-regulation bill among my top priorites.

Firsts E. Lothian Route Map. Note how, as well as geography, they ignore all competition, including trains.

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17: Not What It Used to Be

Posted on April 18, 2011 by davidsberry

Delighted as I am by the MORI poll this weekend that put the SNP ahead of Labour (55 vs 49 seats) for the first time in this contest, what seems far more telling is a series of major cracks in the monolith formerly seen as all-conquering.

First off, Labour published some blustering numbers of 5,000 activist contacting 5,000 voters a day, but nothing adds up. It would take 50 days to reach their 250,000 target—in other words they’d still be campaigning a month after the election. Then there’s the elementary mistakes they’re making that smack of panic and unco-ordinated campaigning, as when they claimed £80m would pay for a council tax freeze but forgot that, since this recurs annually, there would be a £240m hole after only 4 years.

But what encourages me most of all happens right here in East Lothian and belies the ‘5,000 activist’ claims—two lost Labour souls asking directions in one of our new estates; two councillors on Dunbar High St talking mostly (symbolically?) to each other; their Tranent alarm system that calls a squad out when the SNP dare to have a stall there—and then a half-dozen of them mill around in red jackets not quite knowing what else to do before they go home after 45 minutes.

Whereas in the West end of our county they used to weigh the Labour votes, they’re going to need every one they can scrape up this time. For my money, they should consider a new slogan like “Nostalgia isn’t what it used to be” because even its remaining members know that the Labour Party isn’t. “Things Can Only Get Bitter” has such a nasty ring to it.

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18: Won’t Get Fooled Again

Posted on April 17, 2011 by davidsberry

Having met more people yesterday than any other single day so far, the liveliest chats were around the SNP’s ambitious policy to convert to green energy by 2020. But my concern is less whether that can be done and more that Scotland reaps the full economic benefit of being a world leader.

While Scotland in general and Aberdeen in particular made billions from North Sea oil, the UK Treasury and foreign companies made more. And most Scottish companies—whether Ramco, Cairn or OHM—have been swallowed up by bigger fish. People did make money but very little of it wound up in Scotland, catalysing further developmemnt. And it wasn’t just the US-based global giants like Transocean or MacDermott who made out like bandits. National control allowed our old friends the Norwegians to build solid companies on the steady flow of oil.

The Scottish merchant fleet above the size of ferry is tiny; The Norwegian is over 2,000 and growing by almost 200 a year, one third of which are laid down in home yards. Many of these are  specialist ships; highly profitable. Farstad specialises in positioning ships that move and anchor the massive rigs at sea. And, like Holland’s reputation for tugs, they have a world class reputation that brings them business in Angola, Brasil and Indonesia.

As if to highlight how poor we are in using our skills and exploiting local opportunity, the best pipeline-laying ships in the world are run by the Swiss(?!). Allseas’ polyglot crews can hit a metre-square target with a 12″ pipe in 200m of water in the dark. Their skills save the gas companies billions and the thirty welders on board command hourly rates like basketball scores.

If Scotland is to learn how to exploit our riches, we need to learn more than just squirreling away a $200bn oil fund like Norwegian neighbours. We must not be fooled again with the 21st © equivalent of beads and blankets and mostly semi-skilled jobs, as we were in the 70’s.

Allseas MV Solitaire. Pipe is laid through the Stinger at the bow

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19: The Right Question

Posted on April 16, 2011 by davidsberry

Met an eighteen-year-old and a ninety-four-year-old yesterday who co-incidentally asked me the same question within an hour of one another: Why should I vote for you? Two decades trying to represent the place and you’d think I’d have the answer down pat. Even though it’s rare that people are that direct, that’s what it all comes down to. What I said was:

  1. East Lothian is unique—it’s not like other places and it’s certainly much more than Edinburgh’s dormitory backwater
  2. Unlike other candidates, I don’t just live here, I’m from here; I understand it.
  3. Twelve years as a local councillor & three years as Council Leader give me—uniquely—the in-depth experience of delivering what we need
  4. My track record of success was built on a combination of speaking straight, knowing the business and working with people to get thing done
  5. It’s time I took that to Holyrood because we need our own champion there.
That’s the pitch given to both ladies and, if they and others give me the chance, I will carry that message to Holyrood after May 5th.
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20: Manifesto Destiny

Posted on April 15, 2011 by davidsberry

In 1845, during the Polk administration, America coined the term ‘Manifest Destiny‘ as a rallying cry for its vision of becoming a world-class power stretching from Atlantic to Pacific. Still absorbing the massive 1803 Louisiana Purchase, in 1848 the US incorporated Texas, Northern Mexico and the Oregon territory as the final third of the ‘Lower 48’.

Yesterday saw the launch of the colourful 44-page SNP Manifesto for this election, by far the most ambitious, costed and detailed blueprint for the future of the Scotland. There may be no territorial ambition but, unlike any other manifesto, the aspiration to transform our country has a vision and scope that gives a lie to the old unionist girn that Scotland is too small or too poor not to need Britain.

As an example, central to our future is a green energy programme of renewables  development by 2020. This will put Scotland firmly on the global map as a leader in wave and tidal technology, with a seismic shift in  jobs to our periphery, somewhat like the US pioneer movement. With its clock-like predictability, tidal can replace nuclear as ‘base load’ for the energy grid. We’ll need installations around the coast, from the Pentland Firth to the Forth, perhaps even the Corrievreckan, Clyde Kyles and North Channel, Variants on the oil boom that came to Aberdeen and Lerwick thirty years ago will occur in Thurso, Nigg, Oban, Methil, Campbeltown, Ardrossan, as well as wherever the engineering happens. Companies equivalent to the oil service sector will suck in new employees as they grow, expanding abroad with the export market. The economy of peripheral areas will surpass some cities.

It won’t be the Wild West…but it will be the biggest demographic shift and economic boost anywhere in Britain since Scotland led the way in oil.

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