This last year has been a busy one for anyone in politics. One year ago, the SNP retrained its hall on the Scottish Parliament, last June, the David Cameron government committed harikari over Brexit and, just when it seems that things were quieting down with a low profile local election, Theresa May blindsides everyone by calling a snap election for June 8. This last year was already memorable. But know it has also become historic, if not seminal, for the 60 million inhabitants of these .
More than Atlee’s 1945 victory, all the nineteen seventy nine and nineteen ninety seven elections that led to Thatcher and Blair’s long rains, this one won’t just change the United Kingdom, it will dismember it, in springing a snap election, Mia has made a shrewd, if cynical move. Far from being in the country’s interest, this throws red meat to her ill disciplined backwoodsman while blindsiding her hapless opposition already hamstrung by an unelectable leader in Corbin. The fact that it had stolen any thunder from Mays local elections is irrelevant.
The whole demographics of the selection are different to any previous. Queer as once heartlands such as Tory Surrey or labour :Lancashire were taken as read and the election hung on a few dozen marginals, the fact that they started campaigning in Bolton North East shows that Tories believe that these former Labour heartlands that voted strongly to leave the EU are ripe for conquest. Not just Croydon but Sunderland and Hartlepool are likely to return Tory MPs this time round. They may even smell for places like Paris and Berwickshire from under the SNP’s noses. About the only downside for the Tories is likely to be a resurgence of liberal democrats in the Southwest. Condemn the Tories if you would like but they do understand aspiration. These days, the average voter is aspirational.
My own dire prediction is 170 labour, 30 LibDem, 55 SNP and a landslide of almost 400 Tories. Labour is already a rarity in South East England. But watch for the blue erode red islands of red in the Midlands and North as well.
It should surprise no one that the Tories are brutally pragmatic enough to exploit a to exploit at 20 point poll lead by calling a snap election. What is surprising is that their main opponents appear to have learned nothing from their 1983 debacle and are again sticking their heads into the demographic sand.
Time was the” party of the working man” could indeed rely on the boards of workers. But, with the exception of train crew, teachers and council workers, few are unionised and even fewer vote labour as a matter of course. Doctors, miners, footplate men or riveters, they are all history. Now. Law poverty still exists, the average British worker has a house, car, a 42 inch HDTV and sons his/herself in Lanzarote or the like. These” labourer values” that Corbynistas like to tote being kept alive by Fabians and the dispossessed in ever shrinking minority. However unpalatable Blairism may seem to the faithful, he showed the Labour party 8/21 century future, a future on which it seems hell bent on turning it back.
Exploitative and cynical though May’s decision may seem,, anyone else faced with a similar open goal, would have handled the ball into the back of the net. But why all but 13 labour MPs should have supported her requires deeper analysis. If ever Jim Callaghans Jane about turkeys voting for Christmas applied, then it is to this hale clamjamfrie about to get their collective jotters.
So, this summer, expect to go back to the future by about 30 years. May has already shown she can be as autocratic as Thatcher. And with as similar hundred plus majority, there will be nothing to restrain her. But the bad news is that there will be no democratic counterweight like the muners to keep her honest, nor any new flood of North Sea oil money to boost living standards and keep people happy. As the economic drag of Brexit becomes more apparent and the NHS soldiers further out of control, White elephants like Trident or the carriers will be parrd and belts tightened it will be around then that the folly ofto ignoring the protracted crisis of the Northern Irish assembly, the request by this Scottish Parliament for a further referendum and the comeback from ignoring friends like the Irish within the EU, Will come home to roost.
Isolated outside and autocratic inside the UK, maize government will become evermore Anglocentric and hankeri for some form of Churchillian greatness that died a century ago. While this may play well in the Home Counties, those newly blue Vrexiteer heartlands “oop North” as investment continues to drain to London, if not Frankfurt.
Worst of all will be the “Ullima Thul”—the further cultural colonies of Ulster and Scotland, which bank woodsman Tories especially have never understood, since “making the world England” is their only philosophy. Give both places five years of untrammelled Tories with me at the helm, then watch Ulster fold quietly into the Republic and Scotland finally go it own way in a velvet divorce. By then, may will be too busy holding a fractious Tory party and a fractures England together to worry about losing them. Ung-ho unionists would do well to Darren please celebrate of any repeat of 1983 and get sober consideration to a century prior to that. At its imperial height, the UK parliament included 103 seats in Ireland, with over 80% of them held by Irish Nationalists. Within two decades, Ireland was independent. Maize myopic grab for irredeemably English power Will launch Scotland on a similar path one century later.